Violating Guidelines

Yesterday was the 4th of July, so Hil and I broke the rules (“guidelines”) and went out to my sister’s house for a BBQ.  We know it’s poor form, but sometimes you risk more than you should to be with family (Gemutlichkeit) – if only because these moments will be fewer in the future than they’ve been in the past.  It doesn’t make it “right”, but we ate outdoors and, when inside, the rooms had the exterior doors and windows open.  Fortunately, it was a beautiful sunny and warm day with a steady, cooling breeze coming off the Bay.  Oh, yeah, and except for the time it took to take these photos, we were mostly socially distanced.  Anyway, here’s three photos commemorating our throwing caution to the wind…  (And one for history.)
Me in my “flag” cap…
With the hostess… (2020 version)
Kev & Carm at 4th of July 2016 BBQ
And with our mom (who now lives with my sister).
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On This Day In:
2019	I Walk Faster (Too)
2018	Modern Day Behaviour
2017	On Misogynist Tweets From #DumbDonald
2016	Cowboy Boots & Missing Teeth
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2015	Oh, To Be Vulnerable
2014	Neglected Horror
2013	The Price Of Illusions
2012	Once Again
2011	And The “Market” Isn’t Always Right

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To Our #IdiotInChief: Wear A Mask!

Liberty means responsibility.   That is why most men dread it.
―    George Bernard Shaw
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On This Day In:
2019	Silent Purpose
2018	Just Bake The Cake, Man
2017	Visible Proof
2016	Poor Enough Means
2015	Still Standing
	Follow Your Heart
2014	Just Reminded
2013	A Fine Balance
2012	One Measure
2011	Seeking The Common Ground
	In Brightest Day…

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115,000+

I do not know which of our afflictions God intends that we overcome and which He means for us to bear.  But this is certain:  Some I have overcome, some I continue to bear.
—  Jean Toomer
[This is an unusual post for me.  This post is being written on 28 May, three days after the Memorial Day weekend.  Yesterday, the U.S. passed 100K in deaths due to COVID-19.  We are dying at just under 1,000 lives per day.  We are engaged in a great social experiment testing whether we can open our economy without a plan to deal with the virus.  This post is scheduled to go online roughly 15 days after the holiday weekend.  If the President’s gamble was correct, the average death rate will be at or below 1,000 per day.  If his gamble (with our lives) is incorrect, the death rate will be higher – and potentially much higher.  Only time will tell.   —   KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2019	One Generation’s View
2018	The One Thing
2017	Never Give Up
2016	Which Generation Are We?
	Congratulations, Kyle!
2015	Centered
2014	Economic Trinity
2013	At Both Ends
2012	Holding Allowance
2011	The Power Of Good

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Independent Isolation

One of the most indelible lessons of this scary time is that you can survive alone, but you need others to flourish.  The most dangerous preexisting condition my husband and I had for fighting the virus was our devotion to self-sufficiency.  Independence can be its own kind of social isolation.
—   Belinda Luscombe
From her opinion / editorial:  “Nursing my husband back to health, badly“
Appearing in:  Time Magazine, dtd: 18 May 2020
The article appears online as:  “I Thought I Could Handle Anything. Then My Husband Got Sick“
The link is:  https://time.com/5824463/coronavirus-asking-for-help/
(It may be behind a pay-wall.  I am a print / online subscriber.)
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On This Day In:
2019	This Pilgrim Has Had A (Mostly) Happy Road
2018	And Men, Too
2017	Damned If You Do
2016	A Storm Over The Horizon
2015	What About Today?
2014	Idiot, n.
2013	Temporary Reality
2012	The Great Objective
2011	Read A Book

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Why My Dentist Loves Me

You are looking at $1K+, folks!!  Still, I can’t complain too much.  The “gap” had a root canal and crown over 30 years ago, so there was no bleeding and no pain.  And my dentist squeezed me in this morning for a temporary until they can finish the job in a couple of weeks.  They’ve just re-opened after the COVID shutdown and are limited in scheduling procedures by the amount of PPE they can keep in stock for the procedures.  At the moment, they are only taking emergencies and beginning to add to the calendar a month plus out.
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On This Day In:
2019	You Really Don’t
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2018	Until Integrity, Decency, Wisdom, And Humility Return
	Just Tell (And Re-tell) The Big Lie Often Enough On Fox News
2017	To Laws, Not Office Or Individuals
	Beast / General / Civil
2016	Patronage
2015	For Blogs, Too!
2014	Righteous Anger
2013	An Irish Blessing
2012	But Is It Worth It?
2011	Let Us Start

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Role Reversal

Sometimes, you just gotta laugh…
This cartoon was found in a post on one of the blogs I follow:  Pacific Paratrooper
The specific post is located at:  https://pacificparatrooper.wordpress.com/2020/05/14/armed-forces-day-week/
Please visit the site if you have a spare moment…   —  KMAB
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On This Day In:
2019	Right Or Wrong
2018	Open Doors
2017	When It Deserves It
2016	Expiation For Rest
2015	You’ll Get Through It
2014	A Special Kind Of Fall
2013	Very Rewarding
2012	MIB3 – The Team Is Closer Than Ever
	Yet
2011	Little By Little

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Testing To Open The Economy Safely

We cannot ensure success, but we can deserve it.
—  Joseph Addison
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On This Day In:
2019	Or Thought I’d Thought
2018	Go And Dare
2017	And Wealth A Poor Substitute For Ability
2016	Neither Darkness Nor Shadows
2015	It Took Roots
2014	Hard Evidence
2013	Full Participation
2012	Roving (Again)
	Ooops, Again
2011	Why Not?

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What Am I Missing?

[Note: almost all of the “facts” in this post are taken from the Wikipedia article:  COVID-19 pandemic on USS Theodore Roosevelt .  The conjectures are solely mine.]
The story so far…
Sometime in November / December 2019, a virus makes a transition from an animal host to a human host.  We currently believe this happened in the Wuhan area of China.  This is a new virus to the human species and (presumably) the host begins transferring the virus to new human hosts while in the incubation / infectious period.  Multiple people get infected and pass on the virus to others.  As many hosts either show no symptoms or very mild symptoms, this transfer can go on undetected for some time.  Eventually, the virus hits one or more hosts who are not able to survive the infection.  People begin to go to the ER and to die.  The infectious period is presumed to be two to three weeks long, and because we live in an age of jet transportation, the virus gets spread all around the world efficiently.
At some time in late February / early March, the virus is carried aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt by someone (presumably a crew member) and begins to spread to other crew members.  [The ship was ported in Vietnam between 5-9 March and the first crew member was tested positive on 22 March –  13 days after departure from Vietnam.  This puts the detection near the end of what we’ve been told is the incubation / infectious period (14 days).]  By the end of March 2020, over a hundred of the crew have tested positive for the virus.  The crew is between 4,500 and 5,000 strong.  On 27 March, the ship is ported in Guam and the crew is restricted to the ship or to the immediate pier area.
On 13 April a crew member dies of COVID-19.  He is the only one (so far).
As of 20 April, 94% of the crew have been tested for the virus, with 678 positive and 3,904 negative results.  About 60% of the people who tested positive did not have symptoms.  [Presumably, by now (18 May), the Navy has tested 100% of the crew.  This means we have an almost completely isolated control group for analysis.  Presumably, this is being done by both the CDC and the Navy.]
Sailors kept testing positive for the virus even after 14 days of isolation; some who tested positive had previously tested negative.  [It is not clear if this means “new” crew are testing positive after being placed in isolation, i.e. crew who tested negative but were put in isolation for two weeks because of contact with infected crew, or if it means crew who tested positive but showed no symptoms for 14 days continued to test positive, or crew who tested positive AND showed symptoms who were isolated, continued to test positive.  ANY of these guesses / conditions implies the isolation period (14 days) is insufficient to result in a “safe” return-to-duty status.  Alternatively, there may be “something” about this population – age and general good health – which naturally resists the virus and therefore takes it longer to establish in an individual host or which somehow otherwise extends the incubation / infectious period.]
In early May sailors who had completed quarantine began returning to the ship.
As of 5 May, 1,156 crew members have tested positive.  That’s over 20% of the crew.
On 15 May, five sailors on the ship developed symptoms and were found to test positive for the virus for the second time.  They had previously completed a 14-day quarantine and had tested negative at least twice before being allowed to re-board.  The sailors were removed from the ship along with some of their contacts.  Officials said it was not clear if these cases reflect actual relapses or problems with the test.
This last part is what I particularly don’t understand.  Mainly because it implies things (to me) which I don’t feel are being reported on by either the government or by the news media:
1)  Did the five show additional symptoms or did they simply get false positives on their initial tests?  Have the samples (all three at least) been retained and can they be retested with an alternate test methodology to determine if they were accurate or if the first test was a false positive?
2)  Was the test used initially (which gave a positive result) the same test as given for the two negative times.  Have these samples been retained and can they be retested with an alternate test methodology to determine if they were truly negative or if either or both were faulty?
3)  If the five crew were infected, isolated and recovered, who did they contact who might have re-infected them?
4)  If they were re-infected / relapsed, were they showing the virus anti-bodies prior to the relapse?  If no, why not?  If yes, is their level of antibodies different from those who’ve recovered but not relapsed?
5)  If they are showing the same level of antibodies as others who’ve recovered but not relapsed, what does this mean for the rest of the general populace?  My first instinct is that if the antibody levels are the same (or higher) as those who’ve not relapsed, we have a much bigger problem as this means we don’t understand the acquired resistance to this virus.  Either there is none, or the virus is mutating and re-infecting hosts – which is virtually the same thing as having no resistance.  In which case, “Houston, we’ve got a problem…“
So, I’m left wondering…  Do we have bad tests or does surviving exposure fail to create resistance?  Please…  Somebody talk me off this ledge!   “What am I missing?“
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On This Day In:
2019	For Most #IncompetentDonald Followers
2018	I Dare You
2017	To Republicans Who Choose Party Over Country
2016	All About Control
2015	Liberty Is Extravagant
2014	Always Remember To Reach
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2013	Ripples From The Water’s Edge
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2012	POI vs Reality
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2011	Chilled Again

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Nearer My God To Thee, By George

Hil’s Mum and Dad with Big Smiles
Early this morning, my mother-in-law, Doreen Carter passed away from COVID-19 back in Liverpool, England.  She was predeceased by her husband, George Carter, by some twenty-years.  They are survived by their three children and five grand-children.  Below are some photos to remind us of her journey through life…
Hil’s mum (as a little girl) and her mum at the beach.
George and Doreen in their wedding limo…
The newlyweds with their parents…
Doreen and her three at the beach… (Hil on the left)
Grand-dad (Doreen’s father), Doreen and the three on picnic…
A (Brit-side) family portrait…
The American side…
George, Doreen and our Sarah (back when we lived in Liverpool)
And more recently…
“Nana” and Hil in Mike and Viv’s back garden…
A recent Facebook post…
Together again…
In our hearts, thoughts and prayers…
Way back in 2011, I posted a conversation I had with “Nana” Carter:  Things I’ve Learned From Life – Nana Carter
Her thoughts on “Life’s Lessons” may give you some insight into our loss…
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On This Day In:
2019	Laugh With Me
2018	Both Sides, Mr. President?
2017	Republicans Better Wake Up
2016	Truth Telling
2015	To Be Effective In The Modern World
2014	A Little Cover
2013	Binding
2012	Lift
2011	Another Good Movie, Another Excellent Book
	miSFits
	I’m Just Not Sure

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#IncompetentTrump

And yet the President STILL has 93% approval by Republicans and 7% by Democrats!!!  And an average job approval of 49%!!   Who are these people???  He asked:  “What have you got to lose?”   Over 80,000 lives so far…  With no ending in sight.
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On This Day In:
2019	I Hope So
2018	Painted Into
2017	Prayers, Miracles And Lottery Tickets
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2016	Dignity And Grace
2015	Is It Warm Enough For You
2014	What The Right STILL Wants
2013	Embrace Serendipity
2012	Your Order, Please
2011	Well Enough Anyway

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Listening To A #IncompetentDonald COVID-19 Press Briefing

He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary.
—    William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway).
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On This Day In:
2019	I Am Doubtful
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2018	True Measures
2017	Hoping For Tapes
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2016	On Viewing This Mudball
2015	It Takes A Village
2014	In God’s Eyes
2013	We Root For Ourselves
2012	Like A Shark
2011	Discernible Virtue

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I’m Tired Of “Winning”

Corona Virus Data as of 26 April 2020 (from Bing)
In 2016, candidate Trump said America was going to win so much some of us will get tired of it and beg him to:  “Please, stop all this winning.”
It turns out, America has almost one out of every three known cases of Corona Virus (COVID-19).  FAR more than any other country in the world.  America also has almost one out of every four deaths related to the Corona Virus.  Again, FAR more than any other country in the world.  We’re so far ahead that every other country could double there numbers and still not catch us.  How’s that for “winning” and being “in first place”?
#LyingDonald told us we only had 15 cases and soon that number would drop to zero (26 Feb 22020 press conference).  How’s that working out so far?
#IncompetentTrump told us by April the change of season and increased temperature would kill the virus.  (“There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus.  So we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.”)  I think we’ve turned that corner…
COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. thru 21 April 2020
The U.S. started April with just under 5,000 deaths from the virus.  We are now just over 55,000!  A ten-fold increase!
We don’t know if the anti-bodies from recovered folks protects them from future re-infection, if the anti-bodies last indefinitely or if they stop working after “some” period of time.  A vaccine is probably still a year (or more) away…  But #IdiotTrump wants to re-open the economy and get us all back to work.
Ok!!  He was right!!  I’ll say it:  Please Mr. President, can we stop all this winning?  Let some other country be first in getting the virus.  Let some other country be first in deaths from the virus.  Let some other country be the first to go back to work and have the first “second wave” of pandemic.
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On This Day In:
2019	Impeach #45 – (#TraitorInTheWhiteHouse)
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2018	No Pride There
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2017	At Least Twenty To Go
2016	A Sweet Smelling Blog Post
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2015	Getting The Story Right
2014	Like Shells On The Shore
2013	More And Why
2012	How To Gain Effective Fire
2011	Patriot Act

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Expectation For The Near Future

Below are two charts representing Corona Virus (COVID-19) fatalities in Italy and then the United States (below that).  The line on the Italy graph represent where the United States is now (between 500-700 deaths).  It also represents the projection of where we can expect to be in two weeks.
When looking at these charts please recall the Italian government called a national shutdown which is now going into the third week.  Notice the plateau at the far right of the Italy chart.  This shows the number of citizens who died is not zero, but the rate of deaths is no longer increasing.  We (the U.S.) have yet to impose a national shutdown.  In fact, if we do not maintain (increase) the shutdown we are almost guaranteeing we maximize the number of deaths from the virus.
The two following graphs show the COVID-19 death rate by age and then a comparison with the “standard” flu.  If you are young, you might be saying: “Well, it’s mostly old people dying.”  Yes, it is significantly more deadly if you are older.  BUT, before you say who cares, observe that COVID-19 is 10 to 20 times more lethal at every age group.
Finally, a chart showing the rate of deaths for the U.S. versus all significant occurrences world wide.  We are tracking almost parallel to Spain.  The problem is Spain has less than 50 million population and the U.S. has over 330 million population.
My suggestion is that you make NO plans to attend Easter services this year…
If we are VERY lucky, we will have herd immunity by the end of September.
We have a choice.  We can self-isolate…  Look after each other – family, friends and neighbors – while keeping a safe distance.  We are all in this together.  Stay well.
Chart sources are:  CDC (U.S.), CDC (China), Business Insider and MSNBC.
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On This Day In:
2019	Indian Myth
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2018	Nothing
2017	Approval First
2016	In Search Of Words
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2015	At What Price?
2014	Intricate And Subtle Order
2013	Attention To Detail
2012	Aequanimitas!
2011	Consider This

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