Necessary And Desirable

Scientists, like other human beings, have their hopes and fears, their passions and despondencies — and their strong emotions may sometimes interrupt the course of clear thinking and sound practice.  But science is also self-correcting.  The most fundamental axioms and conclusions may be challenged.  The prevailing hypotheses must survive confrontation with observation.  Appeals to authority are impermissible.  The steps in a reasoned argument must be set out for all to see.  Experiments must be reproducible.
The history of science is full of cases where previously accepted theories and hypotheses have been entirely overthrown, to be replaced by new ideas that more adequately explain the data.  While there is an understandable psychological inertia — usually lasting about one generation — such revolutions in scientific thought are widely accepted as a necessary and desirable element of scientific progress.  Indeed, the reasoned criticism of a prevailing belief is a service to the proponents of that belief; if they are incapable of defending it, they are well advised to abandon it.  This self-questioning and error-correcting aspect of the scientific method is its most striking property, and sets it off from many other areas of human endeavor where credulity is the rule.
—   Carl Sagan
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On This Day In:
2019	The Far Side
2018	Hold On
	Day 11: Just Plain Tired
2017	Why Don’t You Tell Us What You Really Think?
2016	Discontent
2015	Do You Know Me?
	Appetite For Life Update
2014	Tough Journalism
2013	Things I’ve Learned
2012	Abstainer, n.
2011	Rain, Rain, Rain
	Test Your Strength
2009	End the mistakes…

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I’m Just Being Skeptical

The major religions on the Earth contradict each other left and right.  You can’t all be correct.  And what if all of you are wrong?  It’s a possibility, you know.  You must care about the truth, right?  Well, the way to winnow through all the differing contentions is to be skeptical.  I’m not any more skeptical about your religious beliefs than I am about every new scientific idea I hear about.  But in my line of work, they’re called hypotheses, not inspiration and not revelation.
—   Carl Sagan
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On This Day In:
2019	We’re Eating Faster And Enjoying It Less
2018	Great Views
	Day 8: One At A Time
2017	Trump Supporters Will Always Find An Excuse
2016	More Posts
2015	A Last Request
2014	It Matters
2013	And You Are?
2012	Not Too Late
2011	Persistence
2009	Health Care?

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A Humbling Learning Process

As a scientist, the thing you must always do is to be humble enough to know that when you get additional information, even information that might conflict what was felt earlier on, you then change your viewpoint and you change your recommendations based on the data.  That’s what science is all about.  Science is a learning process.
—    Dr. Anthony Fauci
Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
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On This Day In:
2019	Another Thought On #45’s Poor Education
2018	As Long As You Survive Each Experience
	WordPress to Facebook Test…
	Day 7: Oh, Yeah!
2017	A Good Habit
2016	The Minds Of Trumpism
2015	Expressing Nonsense
2014	A Real Fight
2013	Unravelling
2012	I Resolve
2011	Practice, Practice, Practice
2009	Phoenix Trip (July ’09)

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Happy 11th Anniversary Of Blogging

This post marks the first day of my 12th year of blogging here on WordPress.  This year, I won’t bother posting an image of the world map showing the “missing” countries (countries without a single visit to my site).  Needless to say, North Korea and Cuba are still among them…
On reviewing my content over the past year, I note a significant number have been diatribes against our corrupt President.  I apologize to any readers whom I’ve bored with this content and my snipes.  My only “justification” is I can’t help myself.  If he is re-elected in November, I imagine my posts will continue to regularly poke fun at him until he sends the “brown shirts” to cart me off.  Even if Biden is elected, I’m sure there will be plenty of politics and world events to continue to poke fun at.
I would say my blog has continued to be an increasing part of my “normal” retired life.  I currently receive about 15 to 60 emails (per day) from the roughly 300 blogs I follow.  My best guess is that two(2) are “known” deceased, which means it’s “probably” actually about ten(10).  By “known” I mean someone has gone onto their site and posted a death post for the original user.  By “probably”, I mean the author has passed and no one’s logged a final post for them.  Another five have said they are moving on to other pursuits (social platforms) and about another ten or so post randomly (a couple of times a year).  That leaves between 200 and 250 who just don’t update their sites and I have no idea what’s happened to them.  Monday is the day I regularly get 45 to 60 emails and most days (the other six days of the week), I usually get the 15 or so.  Some of that is because I relegated their site to a weekly update, but that’s as true now as it ever used to be.  The one’s I set to weekly were the one’s I used to get five to ten posts from each day.  These are VERY rare now.  I imagine most (all?) of those are just “zombie” (unused and undeleted) sites now.
I am still posting thoughts, quotes, movie reviews, book reviews, and favorite music videos.  I easily spend an hour per day reviewing the posts I get (via email subscription) and sometimes that is simply overwhelming.  It’s not always the average blogger’s fault.  If you post something interesting, I will go off and investigate it further: authors, artists, locations, books, movies, science / math / history topics – they will all lead me off down the rabbit hole.  And that hole can be DEEP!  Frequently, I’ll only get through half of the posts and after a week, I’m forced to delete many of the remainders or my email gets crammed with messages I’ll never have time to read.  I apologize to you if you are one of those authors.  I do try to hit as many of you as my better half will allow in any given session.
So, besides this blog, what am I up to?  Well, I’ve been on a “One-Meal-A-Day” lifestyle for almost eight(8) weeks now.  I would say it’s almost a habit.  I was on an Modified Intermittent Time Fasting (MITF) protocol before that, but I’m finding this (OMAD) easier, so I will probably stick with it.  My OMAD protocol is all I can eat for two hours – usually between 2pm and 4pm.  About once every week I have to adjust the two hour period (12 to 2 or 1 to 3pm) and about once a month life gets in the way and I just accept I’ll have more than one meal that day.
I’ve also been slowly adding to a daily workout since 24 April – just over three months now.  I started out with 100 pushups per day, and I’ve since added head-lifts, pull-downs, squats and side-bends.  I’ve been trying to “add” one new exercise every two weeks.  My most recent addition has been skipping rope.  I’m just learning that, but I can do five(5) consecutive jumps pretty consistently now.  I realize that doesn’t sound like much, but you must recall I am morbidly obese and am in excess of 345lbs.  That’s almost 25 stones to any British readers.  Anyway, I’ve had to start SLOW so as not to destroy my knees as I learn to skip.
As to the 100 pushups a day: I’ve missed five(5) days since I started in April.  By way of progress check: I could not do a single “true” (from the ground) push-up when I began.  I can now do 15 consecutive flats.  I normally do inclined push-ups (5 sets of 20).  I just throw the “flats” in every now and then to check  my progress.  My best guess is a flat push-up for someone my body weight is about 200lbs and an inclined push-up is about 150lbs (both are not bad for a 65+ year old).  I am dreaming of doing my first pull-up, but I imagine I will need to lose at least 75lbs before I can do that.  Only time will tell…  (Like I said: “dreaming“.)
Between the working out and the OMAD, I’m down about 16lbs from when I started in April.  That’s right around my target goal of 1lb per week.  Which is also misleading, because fat is lighter than muscle and my body is changing shape faster than I’m losing weight.  The main thing is I’m feeling better.  My blood pressure is down.  My water retention is decreased.  I feel stronger and am definitely more flexible.  So, for what it’s worth, slow and steady seems to be more effective (for health), than the rapid weight loss and re-gain of my veggie juice fasts.  At least, that’s how it is seeming at the moment.
Other than those (diet and workouts), my personal goals this next year are to learn some assembly language programming and to have a play with chat-bots.
That should keep me occupied (and mostly out of trouble).  LoL!!
Oh, yeah.  “Excelsior!!“
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On This Day In:
2019	Happy 10th Anniversary — Thoughts On My First Decade Of Blogging
2018	Happy 9th Anniversary — Three Thoughts
	Day 2 – Notes On Progress
2017	Happy 8th Anniversary
2016	Happy 7th Anniversary
2015	Happy 6th Anniversary
2014	Happy 5th Anniversary
2013	I Resemble That Remark!
2012	Happy 3rd Anniversary
2011	Is America Safe Tonight?
2009	Hello world! (See how it all began…)

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Corporate Cults

Whereas yoga in the late twentieth century began to splinter into scores of brands — all claiming unique and often contradictory virtues — now there are hundreds.  Yet, for all the activity, yoga makes only a small contribution to global health care because most of the claims go unproven in the court of medical science.  The general public sees yoga mainly as a cult that corporations seek to exploit.
—   William J. Broad
From his book:  “The Science of Yoga“
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On This Day In:
2019	Most Hire
	Just The Three Of Us
2018	Sounds Like #45’s White House
2017	Have We Started Winning Yet?
2016	Still Springy
2015	Well Concealed
2014	The History Of Warriors
2013	A Cult Of Ignorance
2012	Counting Valor
	Understanding Faith
2011	I Can Hear You Now
2010	Inception

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Criminal Incompetence, Criminal Indifference Or Both

Science should not stand in the way of this.
—    Kayleigh McEnany
[The “this” which McEnany is referring to is re-opening schools.  She then went on to claim “the science” is actually on their (the Administration’s) side.  The problem is:  the “science” is NOT on their side.  It does seem children (5 to 12 yrs old) are less susceptible to severe impact of the COVID-19, but there is little to no evidence they are any less efficient as asymptomatic carriers and transmitters.  There is also no proof they will not be impacted by future exposures or if there will be any long term effects to what appear to be non-significant exposures.  The virus is simply to new to know any of this.  We are beginning to find out if the antibodies are lasting.  They appear to not be.  And, significantly, we don’t know if re-infections will result in less significant or worse effects than the initial exposure.  The bottom line is that opening schools without masks, personal protected equipment for students, teachers and staff, and social distancing will be exposing our teachers, school staff, families and children to significant health risks.  My question:  “Why is the Administration willing to endanger Americans this way?”  —  KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2019	Slow Wisdom
	It Is A Start…
2018	Young, Fun And Playing Well
2017	Earning Your Blessings
2016	A Suggestion…
	Capable Of Being
2015	Looking For The Needles In The Haystacks
2014	The Definition Of A Gentleman
2013	Thar She Blows (Not)!
2012	Naturally
2011	Been Here, Done That
	Remember
2010	Timeless Classics

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The Tragedy Of Trump Republicanism

We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.
―  Socrates
[I would say today’s Republicans fear light – AND – specifically the light which comes from science, truth and facts.  —  KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2019	What Do Your Children See You Doing?
2018	Is #45 STILL Losing America
2017	We Sleep To Remember And We Sleep To Forget
2016	Useful Gift
2015	Who’s The Boss?
2014	What Counts In The Future
2013	Improper Sequence?
2012	Two Gems
2011	A True Test

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At Least Until The Rainbow Comes

Life isn’t about waiting for the storm to pass.  It’s about learning to dance in the rain.
—    Vivian Greene
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On This Day In:
2019	And/Or A Great Soulmate
	Austen Stalking
2018	Dead Red
	You Ain’t Done Yet
2017	Just Because
2016	As Close As They Can Get
2015	And So I Blog
2014	Take Flight
2013	Contributing Joy
2012	More Than A Race
2011	Institutionalized Leadership

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Normal Scientific Assumptions

Normal science, the activity in which most scientists inevitably spend almost all their time, is predicated on the assumption that the scientific community knows what the world is like.  Much of the success of the enterprise derives from the community’s willingness to defend that assumption, if necessary at considerable cost.
—   Thomas S. Kuhn
From his book:   “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions“
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On This Day In:
2019	Close Change
2018	Don’t Break It
2017	Representative Government For The 99%
2016	Trying To Ignite Ice
2015	Or Increasingly Unwilling To Pay For…
2014	Returning Time
2013	Gentle Invitation
2012	Pleading The Insanity Defense
2011	Graduations And Conservatives
	The Big Sin

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Still Learning

No man ever prayed heartily without learning something.
—  Ralph Waldo Emerson
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On This Day In:
2019	Almost Hallmark
	Beyond All Reason
2018	Daydreams And Wanna-Be’s
	Or Work For #45
2017	Summer Pale
2016	Ain’t It Funny
2015	At Both Ends
2014	Whiner(s)
2013	Just Passing Through
2012	Dog-gone Heaven
2011	Occasional, Sad Results

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A Short Count

“Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy And Its Consequences” (1988©) — book review
Today’s book review is for: “Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy And Its Consequences“, written by John Allen Paulos.  The book is an overview of what the author believes are some of the symptoms (and solutions) of “innumeracy” (the math equivalent of illiteracy) in America.  Paulos is a Professor of maths at Temple University (or was at the time of the publication).  He is a bit of a math prodigy (at the very least precocious) and is kind of a cross between Richard Feynman, Malcolm Gladwell and Levitt & Dubner.  Feynman – as a teacher – in converting technical (math) concepts into relatable images, Gladwell in writing for “the general public” consumption, and Levitt & Dubner (of “Freakonomics” fame) in both of the above plus quirky examples to illustrate his point.
This book is a quick (fast read) and short (135 pages) overview of some main concepts in math and how they are poorly taught / translated / communicated to the general public and, hence, the general distaste for maths during school and its avoidance post-formal education whenever possible.
Paulos’ proposition is that because maths are poorly taught, the general public grows up with a fear (and avoidance) of math for the rest of lives.  One of his proposals is to take retired advanced math users (mathematicians, engineers, scientists) and have them teach in schools because the current maths teachers aren’t very good (for a number of reasons) – pun intended.
The author also reviews math concepts: scale (big and little), fractions, ratios, statistics, probabilities and pseudo-sciences.  This overview / review is the strength of the book as it reminded me of many of the areas of math I’ve long since forgotten (for lack of use).
So, is this book any good?  Does it make you feel numerate or innumerate?  Does it help with the issue raised (innumeracy)?  Yes.  Both.  And, no, or at least I don’t think so.  Once I could get past the author’s ego / superiority complex, I actually quite enjoyed the book.  It is a fast read and he does use his examples in a clear and sometimes humorous fashion.  The text made me feel numerate.  The work through examples innumerate.  A few of the paragraphs had to be re-read to make sure I followed the explanations for why he was doing a particular calculation.  For example, how many days is a million seconds?  The author says eleven-ish.  So, then how long is a billion seconds?  Again, thirty something years.  Now, the author actually worked out the numbers and provided the answers.  The problem?  Well, for me, the answer is 11(-ish) thousand days.  I would never arbitrarily convert days to years.  Not that I couldn’t; just that I wouldn’t.  Why would I, unless specifically asked?  And, for most purposes, I would have ball-parked it (1,000 days is almost 3 years, times 11 is “about” 33 years).  It would not be entirely accurate, but even then, the author didn’t state he was accounting for leap years in his own calculations.  His point was we “all” know how much a second is.  What we don’t know (have a feeling for) is how big a number is a billion (or a million).  My point is I’m not sure if my reaction means I’m personally numerate or innumerate.  And, finally, simply pointing out a problem isn’t the same as offering a viable solution.  I don’t think placing retired math users in schools is a workable solution.  Teaching (across all of the non-adult years) is an art as much as it is a skill.  Yes, you must be grounded in the material, but you must also be enthusiastic (about the subject and teaching) and relatable.  I’m not convinced there is a vast pool of retired engineers and scientists just dying to teach grammar, middle and high school students (and each group has different requirements).
Final recommendation:  Strong to highly recommended.  As an overview of maths topics for the general public, I think this is a very valuable book.  It is brief and has interesting examples.  It is probably too simple for folks with college level math skills.  It is probably too difficult for the truly innumerate.  But, I think there is a wide, flat(ish) bell shaped curve of folks out there (probably 2 standard deviations on either side of the mean) who would gain from reading this book.  Those below the mean because the writing and examples are clear and can be followed along with.  Those above the curve, because the book will remind you how much you’ve forgotten since leaving school.  I just wish the author had been a bit less patronizing of us non-math prodigies.
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On This Day In:
2019	Don’t Forget: Fire Burns
2018	Especially In The Middle East
2017	A Good Local
2016	Life Unlimited
2015	Still Trying
2014	Destiny, n.
2013	No Apologies
2012	Utterly Convinced
2011	A Key To Effectiveness

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Live, Learn And Teach Goodness

The minute we stop learning, we begin death, the process of dying.  We learn from each other with every action we perform.  We are teaching goodness or evil every time we step out of the house and into the street.
—  Leo Buscaglia
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On This Day In:
2019	You Really Don’t
	No One Can Imagine
2018	Until Integrity, Decency, Wisdom, And Humility Return
	Just Tell (And Re-tell) The Big Lie Often Enough On Fox News
2017	To Laws, Not Office Or Individuals
	Beast / General / Civil
2016	Patronage
2015	For Blogs, Too!
2014	Righteous Anger
2013	An Irish Blessing
2012	But Is It Worth It?
2011	Let Us Start

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The Magnitude Of The Challenge

By definition, creativity goes to deep issues of psychology and ultimately what it means to be human — areas that science has always had a hard time investigating.  Science tends to do the easiest things first.  It is nothing if not practical.  This fact of scientific life suggests the magnitude of the challenge that investigators face.
Even so, the importance of the subject and the potential richness of the returns make it attractive.  Big risks can produce big rewards.  It is the kind of topic that might flourish in the decades ahead.
—   William J. Broad
From his book:  “The Science of Yoga“
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On This Day In:
2019	Still Tearing, Still Being Rewarded
2018	Nothing More, Nothing Less
2017	Memorial Day – 2017
	No Wonder I’m Smiling
2016	Thinking Science Fictional
2015	Dawn Is Coming
2014	Back When I Was A Firebrand
2013	Pen In Hand
	Word Up!
2012	Disturbing
	Trying To Keep Up
2011	Unreliable And Selective
2010	Adult-Onset Athlete

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Unlike Faux News Viewers

For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
—  Carl Sagan
[Or, as opposed to listening to #LyingDonald in ANY of his rallies or pandemic briefings.  —  KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2019	I Don’t Know Truth, Either
2018	An Approaching Disgrace
2017	Liberty, Collusion, History And The Republican Majority
2016	But I Have Too Many Questions
2015	A New Friend
2014	Do I Have To Fall In Love?
2013	More Democracy, Please
2012	Speaking Of Love
2011	Limits

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What Am I Missing?

[Note: almost all of the “facts” in this post are taken from the Wikipedia article:  COVID-19 pandemic on USS Theodore Roosevelt .  The conjectures are solely mine.]
The story so far…
Sometime in November / December 2019, a virus makes a transition from an animal host to a human host.  We currently believe this happened in the Wuhan area of China.  This is a new virus to the human species and (presumably) the host begins transferring the virus to new human hosts while in the incubation / infectious period.  Multiple people get infected and pass on the virus to others.  As many hosts either show no symptoms or very mild symptoms, this transfer can go on undetected for some time.  Eventually, the virus hits one or more hosts who are not able to survive the infection.  People begin to go to the ER and to die.  The infectious period is presumed to be two to three weeks long, and because we live in an age of jet transportation, the virus gets spread all around the world efficiently.
At some time in late February / early March, the virus is carried aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt by someone (presumably a crew member) and begins to spread to other crew members.  [The ship was ported in Vietnam between 5-9 March and the first crew member was tested positive on 22 March –  13 days after departure from Vietnam.  This puts the detection near the end of what we’ve been told is the incubation / infectious period (14 days).]  By the end of March 2020, over a hundred of the crew have tested positive for the virus.  The crew is between 4,500 and 5,000 strong.  On 27 March, the ship is ported in Guam and the crew is restricted to the ship or to the immediate pier area.
On 13 April a crew member dies of COVID-19.  He is the only one (so far).
As of 20 April, 94% of the crew have been tested for the virus, with 678 positive and 3,904 negative results.  About 60% of the people who tested positive did not have symptoms.  [Presumably, by now (18 May), the Navy has tested 100% of the crew.  This means we have an almost completely isolated control group for analysis.  Presumably, this is being done by both the CDC and the Navy.]
Sailors kept testing positive for the virus even after 14 days of isolation; some who tested positive had previously tested negative.  [It is not clear if this means “new” crew are testing positive after being placed in isolation, i.e. crew who tested negative but were put in isolation for two weeks because of contact with infected crew, or if it means crew who tested positive but showed no symptoms for 14 days continued to test positive, or crew who tested positive AND showed symptoms who were isolated, continued to test positive.  ANY of these guesses / conditions implies the isolation period (14 days) is insufficient to result in a “safe” return-to-duty status.  Alternatively, there may be “something” about this population – age and general good health – which naturally resists the virus and therefore takes it longer to establish in an individual host or which somehow otherwise extends the incubation / infectious period.]
In early May sailors who had completed quarantine began returning to the ship.
As of 5 May, 1,156 crew members have tested positive.  That’s over 20% of the crew.
On 15 May, five sailors on the ship developed symptoms and were found to test positive for the virus for the second time.  They had previously completed a 14-day quarantine and had tested negative at least twice before being allowed to re-board.  The sailors were removed from the ship along with some of their contacts.  Officials said it was not clear if these cases reflect actual relapses or problems with the test.
This last part is what I particularly don’t understand.  Mainly because it implies things (to me) which I don’t feel are being reported on by either the government or by the news media:
1)  Did the five show additional symptoms or did they simply get false positives on their initial tests?  Have the samples (all three at least) been retained and can they be retested with an alternate test methodology to determine if they were accurate or if the first test was a false positive?
2)  Was the test used initially (which gave a positive result) the same test as given for the two negative times.  Have these samples been retained and can they be retested with an alternate test methodology to determine if they were truly negative or if either or both were faulty?
3)  If the five crew were infected, isolated and recovered, who did they contact who might have re-infected them?
4)  If they were re-infected / relapsed, were they showing the virus anti-bodies prior to the relapse?  If no, why not?  If yes, is their level of antibodies different from those who’ve recovered but not relapsed?
5)  If they are showing the same level of antibodies as others who’ve recovered but not relapsed, what does this mean for the rest of the general populace?  My first instinct is that if the antibody levels are the same (or higher) as those who’ve not relapsed, we have a much bigger problem as this means we don’t understand the acquired resistance to this virus.  Either there is none, or the virus is mutating and re-infecting hosts – which is virtually the same thing as having no resistance.  In which case, “Houston, we’ve got a problem…“
So, I’m left wondering…  Do we have bad tests or does surviving exposure fail to create resistance?  Please…  Somebody talk me off this ledge!   “What am I missing?“
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On This Day In:
2019	For Most #IncompetentDonald Followers
2018	I Dare You
2017	To Republicans Who Choose Party Over Country
2016	All About Control
2015	Liberty Is Extravagant
2014	Always Remember To Reach
	Have You Registered To Vote Yet?
2013	Ripples From The Water’s Edge
	Because I Was Alone
2012	POI vs Reality
	Dear And Sacred
2011	Chilled Again

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