Two Years Later (Now 1,004,000+ Deaths And Inflation)

I do not know which of our afflictions God intends that we overcome and which He means for us to bear.  But this is certain:  Some I have overcome, some I continue to bear.
—  Jean Toomer
[Another (2022) COVID Update:
This update is being written on 5 June 2022 (for posting on 12 June).  There have now been:  1,003,803 total deaths;  247 average deaths per day;  84,565,697 total cases (about 1% fatality rate);  97,611 new average for daily cases;  and, 258,747,147 vaccinations (at least one dose and over 5yrs old) – for a rough 83% of the (eligible) population.  Over 90% of hospitalizations and deaths are of those who have not been vaccinated.  I have not been able to determine if the (remaining) less than 10% are fully vaccinated and current with their booster(s).
What do we know?
Surprisingly little (IMHO) at the end of 18 months…  The early prediction was a fatality number of 2.2 million in the first 18 months IF WE DID NOTHING.  We temporarily shut down a significant portion of society (NOT the economy).  We halved the total deaths to date, but not the rate of deaths per cases.  The economy (and society) are roughly back to “normal”.  Most people can (do) now work from their offices (and / or homes).  Stores and restaurants / bars are mostly opened, but business levels have not recovered.  Most importantly:  we still have little to no publicly available information about the rates or effects of “long-term” COVID, the number of folks with current boosters, or the duration of the vaccine (or booster) effectiveness.  We DO know there is a general decrease in the vaccine(s) effectiveness – hence the recommendation for boosters.  We don’t know the breakdowns by factors such as age, gender, over-all health, etc.  I’m not saying the number(s) isn’t (/ aren’t) out there somewhere or that someone, somewhere isn’t tracking this data – only that I can’t find it readily available.  And, here we are:  “Only time will tell…“
As a side note:  much is being made about the pandemic’s effect on the economy – past and current.  While we (in the U.S.) have accepted deaths and illnesses as a “cost” of returning to a “normal” economy, the world’s manufacturer (China) has not.  They continue to impose local and wide area shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID whenever there is another surge.  Our (U.S.) demand continues to grow back to normal rates (pent up and current demand).  Goods are not being made / delivered to meet demand – so prices increase.  They will continue to do so until supply (roughly) matches demand.  No matter what the Federal Reserve does to interest rates to “cool” inflation, it will have little effect until the manufacturing / delivery conditions change.  How long will that be?  How long is a piece of string??  You never know until have it’s been finally cut (until it’s over).    —    KMAB]
Original post (from 2020):
[This is an unusual post for me.  This post is being written on 28 May, three days after the Memorial Day weekend.  Yesterday, the U.S. passed 100K in deaths due to COVID-19.  We are dying at just under 1,000 lives per day.  We are engaged in a great social experiment testing whether we can open our economy without a plan to deal with the virus.  This post is scheduled to go online roughly 15 days after the holiday weekend.  If the President’s gamble was correct, the average death rate will be at or below 1,000 per day.  If his gamble (with our lives) is incorrect, the death rate will be higher – and potentially much higher.  Only time will tell.   —   KMAB]
(2021) Follow Up to Last Year’s (2020) Post (115,000+):
The “post” above is from one year ago.  It is still too early to tell how good / bad a gamble President Trump took with the health of the nation.  Partly because it is still too soon to have had academia take a look at the data and partly because a number of states – mostly (but not exclusively) with Republican governors (Florida) – are using their office / administrations to hide the true / accurate numbers of illnesses and deaths for political reasons.  We do know that since the Inauguration, the vaccine count has gone from under 50 million to over 300 million.  Over 50% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of vaccine.  Part of this success is attributable to a competent President / Administration and part to the manufacture and distribution of the various vaccines ramping up.
As for our losses, the current “rolling” weekly death average is under 500 per day.  A few weeks ago, the CDC also updated the information on their site to “confirm” that not only are the vaccinated unlikely to get seriously ill and die (still 5 – 10% chance of illness, and less than 1% chance of death), you are also unlikely to become infected and ill at all (15 – 20% illness rate once vaccine period is completed).  Again, it’s too early to KNOW the exact numbers, but in this case it’s because (it is my understanding) “illness” is being self-reported.  Still, this is “good” news and we should see the economy and society begin to return to normal.  We’ve dodged a bullet this time folks.  I am not making light of the individual losses to family members and friends, but the virus could have been a lot more lethal and we still have a considerable way to go on getting the rest of the way to herd immunity.  Let’s hope we are better prepared for the next epidemic…
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On This Day In:
2021	One Year Later (Now 604,000+)
	Good Intentions
2020	115,000+
2019	One Generation’s View
2018	The One Thing
2017	Never Give Up
2016	Which Generation Are We?
	Congratulations, Kyle!
2015	Centered
2014	Economic Trinity
2013	At Both Ends
2012	Holding Allowance
2011	The Power Of Good

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One Year Later (Now 604,000+)

I do not know which of our afflictions God intends that we overcome and which He means for us to bear.  But this is certain:  Some I have overcome, some I continue to bear.
—  Jean Toomer
[This is an unusual post for me.  This post is being written on 28 May, three days after the Memorial Day weekend.  Yesterday, the U.S. passed 100K in deaths due to COVID-19.  We are dying at just under 1,000 lives per day.  We are engaged in a great social experiment testing whether we can open our economy without a plan to deal with the virus.  This post is scheduled to go online roughly 15 days after the holiday weekend.  If the President’s gamble was correct, the average death rate will be at or below 1,000 per day.  If his gamble (with our lives) is incorrect, the death rate will be higher – and potentially much higher.  Only time will tell.   —   KMAB]
Follow Up to Last Year’s Post (115,000+):
The “post” above is from one year ago.  It is still too early to tell how good / bad a gamble President Trump took with the health of the nation.  Partly because it is still too soon to have had academia take a look at the data and partly because a number of states – mostly (but not exclusively) with Republican governors (Florida) – are using their office / administrations to hide the true / accurate numbers of illnesses and deaths for political reasons.  We do know that since the Inauguration, the vaccine count has gone from under 50 million to over 300 million.  Over 50% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of vaccine.  Part of this success is attributable to a competent President / Administration and part to the manufacture and distribution of the various vaccines ramping up.
As for our losses, the current “rolling” weekly death average is under 500 per day.  A few weeks ago, the CDC also updated the information on their site to “confirm” that not only are the vaccinated unlikely to get seriously ill and die (still 5 – 10% chance of illness, and less than 1% chance of death), you are also unlikely to become infected and ill at all (15 – 20% illness rate once vaccine period is completed).  Again, it’s too early to KNOW the exact numbers, but in this case it’s because (it is my understanding) “illness” is being self-reported.  Still, this is “good” news and we should see the economy and society begin to return to normal.  We’ve dodged a bullet this time folks.  I am not making light of the individual losses to family members and friends, but the virus could have been a lot more lethal and we still have a considerable way to go on getting the rest of the way to herd immunity.  Let’s hope we are better prepared for the next epidemic…
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On This Day In:
2020	115,000+
2019	One Generation’s View
2018	The One Thing
2017	Never Give Up
2016	Which Generation Are We?
	Congratulations, Kyle!
2015	Centered
2014	Economic Trinity
2013	At Both Ends
2012	Holding Allowance
2011	The Power Of Good

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Register And Vote

If I have learned one thing in this life, it is that God will not tie my shoes without me.
—     Doug Boyd
[Vote like YOUR life depends on it.  With 200,000 more predicted COVID-19 deaths by the end of the year – YOUR life may BE dependent on it!!
My thoughts about re-opening “the economy” and K-12 schools:
America has less than 5% of the world’s population, but it has over 20% of the world’s COVID deaths.  Over 20 million workers were laid off in this year’s shelter-in-place.  There are estimates of 130 to 150 million workers in the United States.  This was when “all” / most of the country was supposed to be on a “shelter-in-place” order and the economy was “shut-down“.  This means over 80% of the workers were STILL employed / working.  Let’s be generous and say 75% of ALL the remaining workers were able to work from home.  That means we still had over 25 million people working outside of their homes and exposed to others.  That was “considered” a FULL shutdown…  It is simply NOT possible to have a FULL shutdown of a modern economy.  In the U.S., over 20 million are employed in health care alone.  Granted a fair number of those may be in administrative roles and not actually care providers.
Again:  We did NOT and have not been able to shutdown the economy and we will never be able to.  The only way to get to 2022AD with the minimum number of deaths is strict adherence to:  1)  Wear a MASK;  2) Wash your hands frequently;  3)  Practice social distancing when out in public (a minimum of 6-8 feet apart);  4) Avoid large gatherings (more than 10 people);  5)  re: #4 – particularly when the gathering is planned to be indoors;  6) and take the vaccine as soon as it is “reliably” certified by the CDC.  (This means after Trump has been removed from office.)
A couple of years ago I opined that youth exposure to internet pornography was the “greatest / worst” social experiment of our time.  My opinion has changed…  We are, as a nation, committing to sending millions of OUR children under the age of 12 years old back to school where they will almost certainly be exposed to COVID.  It is being stated the young are the least susceptible to fatal exposure and, therefore the “risk” is their spreading COVID to others (parents / adults).  This is not entirely true.  We have no idea what the long term effects of COVID exposure are to children or if prolonged or repeated exposure will have any effects later in their lives.  And we can’t know either of these things for multiple years.  We are not just risking the current economy.  We are risking the health and future of OUR children.
I know there is a lot going on now-a-days.  I just wish someone (journalist / broadcaster / doctor) was taking a lead in raising this concern.  I feel like a voice in the wilderness…
And now I will climb down from my soapbox.    —    kmab]
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On This Day In:
2019	Love And Leave
2018	Smiling If Not Laughing
2017	Chilled And Smooth
2016	But Sometimes You Have To Stand In Front
2015	The Key Shift
2014	Remember ISIS / ISIL?
2013	What Have You Done Lately?
2012	B8
2011	I’m Definitely Not In Control

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Register And Vote

In November remember – DO NOT flip a coin, throw a dart at the ballot, or close your eyes and pull any lever your hand rests on.  And DO NOT vote for a President and then skip the rest of the state and local candidates and issues on your ballot:
1. You’re not JUST voting for President
2. You’re voting for Democracy and you’re voting against allowing the USA to become yet another authoritarian regime.
3. You’re voting for Federal leadership to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.
4. You’re voting for who replaces Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court.
5. You’re voting for the appointment of a qualified Secretary of Education and getting rid of the unqualified Betsy Devos.
6. You’re voting for federal judges.
7. You’re voting for the rule of law.
8. You’re voting for saving national parks.
9. You’re voting for letting kids out of cages and reunited with their families.
10. You’re voting for clean air, clean water and more sustainable energy resources.
11. You’re voting for scientists to be allowed to speak about climate change and for rebuilding the CDC.
12. You’re voting for what a President says and does on Twitter.
13. You’re voting for housing rights.
14. You’re voting for minorities to be treated with dignity by those who are supposed to protect and serve all people under the Constitution of the United States.
15. You’re voting for non-Christians to be able to adopt and to feel like full citizens.
16. You’re voting for Dreamers.
17. You’re voting so that there will be Social Security and Medicare when you retire.
18. You’re voting for veterans to get the care they deserve.
19. You’re voting for rural hospitals.
20. You’re voting so that everyone can have health insurance without regard to employment status or income.
21. You’re voting for the preservation of PBS.
22. You’re voting to have a President who doesn’t embarrass this country every time she or he attends an international meeting.
23. You’re voting for sensible gun laws.
No Democrat is perfect.  They won’t pass your purity test.  And yet every single one of them will be better than four more years of Trump!!!  Please be reasonable and STAY FOCUSED!
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On This Day In:
2019	Always Surprises
2018	You’ve Got To Stand For Something
	Day 24: Hand Touching Hand
2017	The Tide Will Turn
2016	Dreamers
2015	Three Roars
2014	Be R-E-L-E-V-A-N-T
2013	Lacking
2012	So Small A Thing
2011	Is Your Time Valuable?

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Expectation For The Near Future

Below are two charts representing Corona Virus (COVID-19) fatalities in Italy and then the United States (below that).  The line on the Italy graph represent where the United States is now (between 500-700 deaths).  It also represents the projection of where we can expect to be in two weeks.
When looking at these charts please recall the Italian government called a national shutdown which is now going into the third week.  Notice the plateau at the far right of the Italy chart.  This shows the number of citizens who died is not zero, but the rate of deaths is no longer increasing.  We (the U.S.) have yet to impose a national shutdown.  In fact, if we do not maintain (increase) the shutdown we are almost guaranteeing we maximize the number of deaths from the virus.
The two following graphs show the COVID-19 death rate by age and then a comparison with the “standard” flu.  If you are young, you might be saying: “Well, it’s mostly old people dying.”  Yes, it is significantly more deadly if you are older.  BUT, before you say who cares, observe that COVID-19 is 10 to 20 times more lethal at every age group.
Finally, a chart showing the rate of deaths for the U.S. versus all significant occurrences world wide.  We are tracking almost parallel to Spain.  The problem is Spain has less than 50 million population and the U.S. has over 330 million population.
My suggestion is that you make NO plans to attend Easter services this year…
If we are VERY lucky, we will have herd immunity by the end of September.
We have a choice.  We can self-isolate…  Look after each other – family, friends and neighbors – while keeping a safe distance.  We are all in this together.  Stay well.
Chart sources are:  CDC (U.S.), CDC (China), Business Insider and MSNBC.
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On This Day In:
2019	Indian Myth
	Did He Even Have The Courage To Ask?
2018	Nothing
2017	Approval First
2016	In Search Of Words
	Day 2 – Blending
2015	At What Price?
2014	Intricate And Subtle Order
2013	Attention To Detail
2012	Aequanimitas!
2011	Consider This

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Day 18: My Body Mass Index (BMI)

Please do NOT take anything I say in my posts about fasting as medical advice.  I am NOT a physician or health specialist and have NO formal training in medicine, diet or nutrition.  I do have lots of personal experience dieting (and failing) and losing weight (and finding it again).  Please consult your doctor before you start a diet, work-out plan or any significant change in your physical lifestyle.  A word to the wise should suffice…
The end of day eighteen and the start of day nineteen…
Morning weight:  345lbs.
I am now down “28/35”.  As in, 28lbs down from my fasting start weight:  373lbs, and 35lbs down from my highest weight ever (two days before I started the fast):  380lbs.  Today’s loss is a 2lb loss, down from 347lbs yesterday.  I continue to feel an average loss of 2lbs per day are unusual and that I will start hitting plateaus any day now…
The BMI for a typical adult American male is 28.6.  My BMI (Body Mass Index) estimate is:  49.5  (Morbidly Obese)
According to the CDC, which rates a BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 as “normal” (Normal weight:  <= 173lbs for me) and a BMI of 25 to 29.9 as “overweight” (Over-weight:  <= 208lbs to me).  Any male adult with a BMI of 30 or higher is considered obese (“Just” obese:  <= 275lbs to me).  To put this in perspective, I have lost 35lbs (to date on this fast) and need to lose 70lbs MORE just to get down to the top of the obese range.  Since (in my experience) the greatest loss occurs at the start of the fast, it is extremely unlikely this fast (or any reasonable fast) will get me near that much weight loss.  And, in fact, that was never my intent at the start of this.  Please recall I was intending to fast for seven days to jump-start my diet / lifestyle change.  This remains my ultimate objective:  to get to a healthier weight level by changing my “relationship” with food AND decreasing my sedentary lifestyle (since I am retired and no longer an office worker).
And so I plod on – day by day.  My medium term goal (today):  21 days (noon this Friday).  If I can reach that date, evaluate how I feel and push on or break the fast.  I would love to be able to say I’ve lost 50lbs fasting, but that would probably be another two weeks beyond Friday and I don’t want to think that far ahead.   Today I juiced up another bunch of veggies and have enough to get me close to (if not through) the weekend.  And so, day to day…
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On This Day In:
2017	Open Your Eyes (And Your Heart)
2016	Privilege Too…
2015	Otherwise Obscured
2014	Fundamentals
2013	Proof – ing
2012	Deluge, n.
2011	Hail, Caesar!
	Why Were You Sent?

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