Let Me Tell You An Amusing Story…

All the old history was written for the amusement of the ruling classes.  The lower classes couldn’t read, and their rulers didn’t care about remembering what happened to them.
—     Francis Zappa
As quoted by his son:  Frank Zappa
From his book:  “The Real Frank Zappa Book“
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On This Day In:
2021	Together Forever
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2020	Still Learning
2019	Almost Hallmark
	Beyond All Reason
2018	Daydreams And Wanna-Be’s
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2017	Summer Pale
2016	Ain’t It Funny
2015	At Both Ends
2014	Whiner(s)
2013	Just Passing Through
2012	Dog-gone Heaven
2011	Occasional, Sad Results

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Memorial Day 2022

Arlington National Cemetery The Tomb of the Unknown Soldier
As we gather around our dinner and picnic tables enjoying the freedom you sacrificed your lives to provide for us, a grateful nation remembers and prays for you and your families…
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On This Day In:
2021	How Trump Won The Fringe Right
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2020	I’d Include Health Care
2019	Accustomed To It
2018	Booking My Trip Into The Expanding Universe
2017	Fear Instead Of Convictions
2016	Memorial Day – 2016
2015	A Handful Of Reviews
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2014	Get Wisdom
2013	Enjoying The View?
2012	Adam’s Rib
2011	I’m Sure I Remember That…
	Memorial Day, 2011

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We Are Seeing The Future

The wars of the late nineteenth century – the American Civil War, for example and the Franco-Prussian War – were wars of the railway, the telegraph, breech-loading small arms and tinned rations.  The seas were dominated by the ironclad.  At the beginning of the twentieth century the Russo-Japanese War show to any who cared to learn the dominance on the battlefield of the spade, barbed wire and automatic weapons.  The First World War rammed home the same lesson, in a war in which the internal combustion engine, artillery, the submarine, air power and armoured vehicles became the dominant features.  The Second World War was one of worldwide mobility on land and sea and in the air, of total mobilization of population and industrial reserves, of sea power and of air forces.  It ended in the shadow of the nuclear weapon.  The Third World War was widely expected to be the first nuclear war – and perhaps the last.  It turned out in the event to be essentially a war of electronics.
—     General Sir John Hackett (et al)
From his book:  “The Third World War: August 1985“
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On This Day In:
2021	The Correct Answer Will Be In The Form Of A Question
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2020	Testing To Open The Economy Safely
2019	Or Thought I’d Thought
2018	Go And Dare
2017	And Wealth A Poor Substitute For Ability
2016	Neither Darkness Nor Shadows
2015	It Took Roots
2014	Hard Evidence
2013	Full Participation
2012	Roving (Again)
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2011	Why Not?

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Prescient (Or Not?)

Russia is still contending with the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Russia can meddle in Ukraine at the margins, but threats to fully invade and occupy a country of more than 44 million people aren’t credible.  That big a move would cost too many Russian lives and too many rubles for a chronically weak – and weakening – Russian economy.  In recent months, Belarus provided the latest example of the post-Soviet demand for fundamental change and the need to shoot people to keep protests under control.  In the most recent presidential election in Moldova, a Harvard-educated economist toppled a pro-Kremlin incumbent.  Last year, Turkey’s backing for Azerbaijan dealt a humiliating defeat to Russian ally Armenia in a region that Russia once dominated.  Beijing is increasingly competing for influence with Moscow among the former Soviet Central Asian states.
—     Ian Bremmer
From his opinion piece:  “The Risk Report: What game is Putin playing?“
Appearing in:  Time Magazine;  dtd:  21/28 June 2021
[It seems the “threat” of invasion was a little more “credible” than Mr. Bremmer believed (the editorial was from 2021).  IF the West continues to support Ukraine and IF Putin doesn’t resort to tactical nukes, it appears Mr. Bremmer will ultimately be proven correct that Russia bit off it bit more than it could chew (let alone conquer).    —    KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2021	Or Faith In A Creator…
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2020	Nearer My God To Thee, By George
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2019	Laugh With Me
2018	Both Sides, Mr. President?
2017	Republicans Better Wake Up
2016	Truth Telling
2015	To Be Effective In The Modern World
2014	A Little Cover
2013	Binding
2012	Lift
2011	Another Good Movie, Another Excellent Book
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Not Exactly Preventing Or Realizing

History is not an exact science.  And ‘the historian of the future’ is as much artist as scientist or academic.  But the futurologist cannot be taken lightly.  He bases his conclusions on perceived trends, and his predictions themselves may possibly have some effect on the future:  in helping either to prevent his predictions coming true or to realize them.
—     General Sir John Hackett (et al)
From:  “The Third World War: August 1985“
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On This Day In:
2021	Maybe He Agreed With His Mum
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2020	Imagine Existence
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2019	Voices Of The Past
2018	Sunrises, Rainbows And Newborn Babies
2017	Untold Agony
2016	Just Borrowed
2015	Warning
2014	Always More Productive
2013	Is Not
2012	Loosely Translated
2011	Your Opinions Are Not My Facts

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Refreshing My Look Ahead (Back)

[Another LONG post…  You’ve been warned!  (LoL)    —    KMAB]
The Third World War:  August 1985  (1978©)   —   book review
This review is for the fictional portrayal (as a “future history”) of a “realistic” invasion of NATO allied European countries by the Warsaw Pact in August of 1985.  The book was “written” primarily (et al) by (Ret.) British General John W. Hackett in consultation with a number of experts gathered to discuss how such an invasion might occur, what might lead up to it and what might be the end-of-war results.  The “advisors” were listed as:  John Barraclough (Air Chief Marshal), Kenneth Hunt (Brigadier), Ian McGeoch (Vice-Admiral), Norman Macrae (a deputy editor at “The Economist“), John Strawson (Major-General), and, Bernard Burrows (British Diplomatic Service).
The book was a best-seller in England back in 1978.  It was published in the U.S. in early 1979 as a hardback and then released as a paperback in 1980.  I initially read the paperback version.  I believe it was shortly after I was released from the Active Reserves, but my memory isn’t that precise anymore.  In any case, this review is of a re-reading of the book after my reading of “2034: A Novel of the Next World War” earlier this year.  (review here:  A Novel War).  The author of that book, (ret) Admiral James Stavridis, cited this book as a primary inspiration for his work.  This prompted my re-interest in the original…
During my (almost) two years in the Reserves I was assigned to a unit which tested and evaluated the readiness of National Guard units from California, Arizona and New Mexico.  The officers would establish “war-game” scenarios for the Guard officers and I (as an NCO) would embed with the line units to evaluate actual field performance.  We were artillery evaluators, so I watched Guard batteries fire cannons / howitzers, but I gained an understanding of scenario development and large scale tactical war-gaming.  This led to a post-service interest in military style board games which carried on for most of the ’80s.  I lost interest when gaming shifted to computers and became “mostly” shoot-em-up’s instead of (IMHO) about strategy.
Basically, the plot of this book is the leaders of the USSR feel their position as a superpower is being threatened by political and economic factors which are worsening (for them).  They feel there has been a significant / progressive decrease in NATO’s readiness over the last decade and this may be their last / best opportunity to remove a potential military threat (NATO) and further subjugate the buffer countries of Eastern Europe who are members of the Warsaw Pact.  The plan is a crushing invasion of Western Europe (West Germany and the low-lands) which leaves the USSR in command up to the border of France.  The invasion fails because in the years between the book’s publishing (1978) and the date of the “future-history” event (August 1985), Europe (specifically Great Britain) comes to its senses and reverses the general military decline of the late ’60s to ’70s.  The NATO forces are able to slow the advance of invasion (without the use of tactical nuclear weapons) and allows reinforcements to arrive from the U.S. just in the nick of time.
In a striking foreboding of the current (2022) invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the invasion portrayed fails because of (in no particular order of importance):
1)  an inability to dominate the air despite superior numerical assets;
2)  a failure of logistics (fuel and ammunition) by the Warsaw Pact, (it is believed the invasion will take less than two weeks AND there will not be enough time for the U.S. to resupply NATO forces);
3)  resistance by the native forces (in this case, the West German army / reserves) is surprisingly effective;  and,
4)  the centralized command and control characteristic of authoritarian political systems, does not promote the flexibility / initiative of junior officers (and NCOs) to seize military opportunities when they arise, so opportunities for significant breakouts are lost.
When the war quickly (the “war” lasts weeks) devolves into a war of attrition, failure is viewed as inevitable and hard-liners in the Politburo decide to consolidate their gains for future armistice negotiations by the use of a limited (against only one city) nuclear strike.  The result, however, is not fear and negotiation, but instead, fury and retaliation via a similar limited nuclear strike by Great Britain and the U.S. against a Russian city;  (and like falling dominoes) the Warsaw Pact allies turn on the USSR to avoid nuclear annihilation;  the Soviet military / security services stage a coup, over-throw the hardliners, and cease further combat;  the non-Russian border states (the “-stans”) declare independence from the USSR;  and, the rest of the world struggles with the effects of a new world order.  The “war” is barely a month old before it is over.  Because the book is written as a “recent” history of past events, it does not attempt to forecast / describe long term results of the war except to relate the world has to deal with unaccounted for Soviet nuclear weapons / warheads and large stocks of conventional weapons scattered around the global (mainly Africa).
Is this a “good” book?  Is it realistic as a predictor of future conflict (lethality, if not participants)?  Is it entertaining or interesting?  Do I recommend this book?  With the exception of the final question, the answer to all of these is (are):  yes to so-so…
The book is not a “good” novel.  There are no specified individual characters driving the action, so you cannot (as a reader) identify and grow with anyone.  In this sense, although fictional, the book is written with more of an academic or journalistic feel.  It is very much an military style “after-action” report.  If you are comfortable with this writing style, you will enjoy the writing / book.  If you are not, you will not.  I did.  Was the book able to realistically describe combat and the results (devastation) of war?  Yes!  Although, saying this, there was an obvious Western bias of vivid description of the destruction of the British city and virtually nothing about the similar (or much worse) destruction of the Russian city.  (Very much:  “Yeah, we took out one of theirs as payback…”)  Is the book entertaining or interesting?  This is the toughest question because every reader’s tastes varies so much… I was not “entertained”;  but, I did find the book interesting.  I particularly “enjoyed” the parts the authors get terribly wrong, because as a reader I (we) have 40+ years of hind-sight.  There is no China – Japan alliance;  the Shah is no longer in charge of Iran (or, rather, wasn’t in 1985);  South Africa did not fall to external forces;  and, East Germany did not resist consolidation with West Germany after the fall of the USSR.
Final recommendation:  strong recommendation.  I think most veterans (particularly my age group) will find this book relatable.  I think most civilian “military” readers / historians – and quite a few regular historians – will, too.  For political science readers, the “states” interests, goals, and stances will seem Machiavellian / Kissinger-ian (is that a real word?).  Yet, they ring true – even 40 years later.  It is entirely obvious why this book could seem as an inspiration for a future – updated version (a la “2034“), and I believe (I read) this book served as a similar inspiration for several of Tom Clancy’s works which followed.  At any rate, I do remember “enjoying” the initial read from “way-back-when”, and don’t feel the re-read was less so.  My reaction to “2034” was reinforced:  this version is much better than the more recent book.  If you have read “2034“, I recommend you read “WW3:1985” for the comparison value, if nothing else.
Final disclaimer:  I purchased this book at normal / sale price (for an old / used book) and no compensation has been provided to me by anyone for my opinions in this review.
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2017	Fighting Good
2016	Size Matters
2015	Maybe The Best Thing
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2012	Winning Wars
2011	A Different Lesson

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Against Considerable Odds

Colonels and generals are expected to fight moving, active battles, always seeking an advantage from the use of terrain, surprise and mobility.
Generals are expected to concentrate defending forces in front of the main thrusts of the enemy so that the fighting troops do not have to meet a greater ratio of strength against them than three or four to one.
…
The captains and their troops have learned that modern weapons in the defense can and should inflict losses on an attacker, in comparison to their own, of well over three to one.  They have learned, in short, that a successful defense against considerable odds is possible.
—    General Sir John Hackett (Ret.)
From his book:  “The Third World War:  A Future History“
The book was “written” by General Hackett and “others” and purported to be a “future history” of a war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.  The “war” ends following a limited tactical nuclear exchange which leads to a revolution in Russia.
[With the delays in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, much has been said about the failure to overwhelm the militarily over-matched defenders.
Ukraine vs Russia (In Theater) Armed Forces 200,000 850,000 200,000 Fighter Aircraft 69 772 193 Attack Aircraft 29 739 185 Helicopters 112 1,543 386 Attack Helicopters 34 544 136 Tanks 2,596 12,420 3,105 Personnel Carriers 12,303 30,122 7,531 Self-Propelled Artillery 1,067 6,574 1,644 Towed Artillery 2,040 7,571 1,893 Mobile Rocket Launchers 490 3,391 848
What isn’t clear to me is how many of Russia’s forces are actually “in theater” and committed to the invasion.  The numbers I’ve seen indicate approximately “200,000” Russians were gathered for the invasion.  This is (again approximately) 25% of Russia’s forces.  If we assume a similar ratio across the board for other assets, the numbers are far less indicative of an assured success for the invasion.
In military theory, it is almost a given that the attacker needs a six-to-one superiority in order to have a reasonable “guarantee” of success against a prepared defense.  (This is why you concentrate forces at breakout / breakthrough points.)  Three-to-one superiority is considered the bare minimum to have a reasonable “expectation” of success.
Based on the above numbers, the “only” Russian advantage is in attack aircraft (29 vs 185).  This is an even greater advantage than just the numbers indicate as attack aircraft serve as force multipliers for both your tanks and your ground forces.
IMHO this invasion will succeed or fail based on three factors:  logistics, will and geography.  If the Russian forces can maintain their supply of fuel and ammunition, they will have the advantage in a war of attrition.  If Ukraine can maintain their will to fight in the face of both heavy civilian losses and questionable munitions resupply from other countries, they will make the war / occupation unsustainable for Russia.  Finally, we should recall Russia invaded and then dominated Afghanistan for almost twenty years before finally being driven out.  Afghanistan is roughly the size of Texas.  Texas is only about 10-15% larger than Ukraine.  There is a vast amount of land to hide in and fight from IF you have the will to do so.  So far, the Ukraine people have shown the will…
Of course, all of this assumes Russia does not choose a tactical nuclear option…    —    KMAB]
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On This Day In:
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2017	Creating Reality
2016	Come, Read To Me Some Poem
2015	Exceeding Service
2014	Still Learning
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2013	Execution Not Intensity
2012	Charles Carroll Of Carrollton (The Only Catholic Founder)
2011	Life Works
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So THAT’s Why…

God created war so that Americans would learn geography.
—    Mark Twain
[Just over a week ago, I was discussing the Ukraine (at that time the Russian threat of invasion) with someone who said, he didn’t want the U.S. to get involved in the problems of some “tiny, insignificant country in Europe that I can’t even point to on a map”.  I replied Ukraine is bigger than California (almost twice the size) and just smaller than Texas (roughly 90%), and you probably can’t find it because it was part of the U.S.S.R. when you were studying world geography.  I added the Ukraine President is the guy who stood up to #45 when he (#45) tried to extort them into a announcing a bogus investigation of Joe Biden in exchange for military funding for Ukraine’s defense.  The funding had already been authorized by Congress and #45 was withholding the funds to try to “buy” the U.S. election with a made-up scandal.  Maybe Twain was only part right.    —    KMAB]
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On This Day In:
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2017	He’s Keeping The Light On For Us
2016	The Results Of Trying Too Hard
2015	Make Me Look
2014	Fresh Drink
2013	Good Business
2012	Unsure Spirit
2011	A Lost Valuable

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Putin Invades Ukraine To Recreate The Old Soviet Union

Schoolboy days are no happier than the days of afterlife, but we look back upon them regretfully because we have forgotten our punishments at school and how we grieved when our marbles were lost and our kites destroyed – because we have forgotten all the sorrows and privations of the canonied ethic and remember only its orchard robberies, its wooden-sword pageants, and its fishing holidays.
—     Mark Twain
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2018	Recently Seen On A T-shirt:
2017	Rhythmical Creation
2016	In The Beginning
2015	False Gods
2014	But Sometimes Careers Choose People
2013	Pretty Sure Of Uncertainty
2012	Face Reality
2011	Intelligent Luck

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Historians, Not Librarians

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.
—    Warren Buffett
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On This Day In:
2021	Inshallah
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2020	A Choice
2019	Fill It Up
2018	Can We Talk About Me?
2017	About Change
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2016	Are Your Prayers Functioning?
2015	Expressing Love
2014	Cyclical Attitudes
2013	Footprints
2012	Broken Resolutions
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It Still Isn’t

A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.
—    Warren Buffett
[We are a republic because the “Founders” did NOT believe in the shared ignorance of the common man to run a government.  They believed representatives could gain expertise, but would fundamentally vote their conscious for a common good.  It is not at all clear the latter assumption remains true.  It is increasingly difficult to vote out of office ANYONE who no longer represents the electorate, because of the massive amounts of monies required to conduct modern campaigns.  Without the check of a suitable AND viable alternative replacing you at every election cycle, today’s politicians tend to vote in their interest and not in the interest of the electorate.  This is both the power of and threat from office holder incumbency.
In fairness to the “Founders”, it is also highly unlikely they imagined modern medicine would extend the lives (and working careers) of an average politician into their 70’s and 80’s.  The working assumption was political office would be a part-time thing or a crowning lifetime achievement, and not a life-long career.  The expectation was that most would HAVE to go back to look after their families, their farms / land, or their businesses.  This is obviously no longer the case – as long as you can retain the power of your elected office.    —    KMAB]
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2020	One Is Not Plural
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2018	Good-Bye AG Jeff Sessions
2017	On Our Wall (Part 2)
2016	I Beg The Question
2015	By Their Fruit
2014	Proven Worth
2013	From Missouri
2012	Recipe To Write: Start With One Aching Urge
2011	Ip And Rib
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2010	Final Competition

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Veterans Day – 11 November 2021

2021 Veterans Day Poster
The image / poster was taken from the Veterans Administration web site:  http://www.va.gov/opa/vetsday/gallery.asp where you can see each of the posters since 1978.
[To all who are serving, to all who have served, and to all those who have waited patiently for their return, “Thank You!!“
If you have the time, take a minute to read:  What Is A Vet?    —    KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2020	Veterans Day – 11 November 2020
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	Remembrance Day – 11 November 2020
2019	Veterans Day – 11 November 2019
2018	Veterans Day – 11 November 2018
2017	Veterans Day – 11 November 2017
2016	Veterans Day – 11 November 2016
2015	Veterans Day – 11 November 2015
2014	Veterans Day – 11 November 2014
2013	Veterans Day – 11 November 2013
2012	Monkey Business
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2011	Veterans Day – 11/11/11
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2010	We are not from fearful men and I Am Not Afraid!!
	Veterans Day – 11 November 2010
2009	Narrowly missed first weight goal, but still happy…

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The Real World Effect Of Fox News’ Lies

Wood that grows warped can never be straightened.
—    Greek Proverb
[I predict when the history of this period is better understood, the poisoning of American conservatism will be laid at the hands of Faux News (specifically:  Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes) and (former Speaker of the House) Newt Gingrich.  The years of constant lies (Gingrich) and the promotion of these lies (Murdoch and Ailes) are what have led this country to our current state of affairs where a majority of “red” states believe they should secede from the Union and a majority of “blue” states seem willing to let them.    —    KMAB]
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On This Day In:
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2019	Two Peace
2018	The Sensation Of Human Intimacy
2017	One Night In A Thousand Years
2016	A Considerable Amount Of Work
2015	Panzer Soldier
2014	Babies (I)
2013	Patriotic == Tell The Truth
2012	30 Days To Go
2011	Altering The Course

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Glued To The TV – 3,000 Miles Away

Where Were You
Favorite Line(s):
Did you go to a church and hold hands with some strangers
Did you stand in line and give your own blood?
Did you just stay home and cling tight to your family
And thank God you had somebody to love?
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On This Day In:
2020	Current Heroes
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2019	All In Good Time
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	Ghrelin And Leptin
2018	Gratitude And Warmth
	Remembering Loss, Sacrifice And Service
	Making Little Ones Out Of Bigger Ones
2017	Never Forget
2016	It’s All Greek To Me (Well, Latin Actually)
2015	Truism
2014	Thank You
2013	Really
2012	Ordinary Five Minutes Longer
2011	The Wealth Of Sons (And Daughters)

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Current Heroes (II)

Sometimes re-posts are entirely appropriate…  This isn’t “exactly” a re-post, but the first three following paragraphs are pretty close…
For the last twenty years, on 11 September my thoughts turn to those heroes who quietly serve to protect us:  those in the military services, those in law enforcement, and those in health and other protective services.
Today (as it was last year), my beloved State of California is under a state of emergency as fires rage up, down and across the the breadth of the State.  I would just like any of my readers to share with me a few moments of thought (prayers if you’re that way inclined) for those firefighters who are risking their lives daily (and have been for several weeks now) continuously fighting fires to save lives, pets and property.
I, for one, can never express my gratitude enough for what you do.  I can only offer you (and your families) my thoughts and prayers.  God keep you all safe!
This year, we are also engaged in a second wave (and second year) of battle against an indiscriminate virus which is ravaging the nation as well as our state.  Last year – at this time, we didn’t have a vaccine to help protect us in this battle.  This year we do have an effective vaccine, but it has not been fully distributed.  Consequently, the virus is now running rampant among those who are unvaccinated – particularly children under 12 years of age (for whom the vaccines have not yet been proven safe).
We do not know how long the vaccines will remain effective.  We do not know how severe “long-term” COVID effects will last or even if the effects ease or get worse for those COVID does not kill immediately.  What we do know is the vaccines are very effective in reducing the number of folks going to the ER with serious (life-threatening) illness.  We know masking, practicing social distancing and washing your hands frequently also reduces the rate of spread of the virus.
Unless you have an underlying medical condition which prevents you from getting vaccinated, the best thing you can do to help our doctors, nurses, EMTs and other health professionals is to get your shot(s).  The life you save may be your child’s…
And finally, my thoughts (and prayers) go out to the people of one third of the country damaged by the winds and rain of the recent hurricane (Ida).  With countless individual acts of courage, strength and charity, I believe you will come through these difficult days and be the stronger for it.
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On This Day In:
2020	Current Heroes
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	Appropriated To Her Being
2019	All In Good Time
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	Ghrelin And Leptin
2018	Gratitude And Warmth
	Remembering Loss, Sacrifice And Service
	Making Little Ones Out Of Bigger Ones
2017	Never Forget
2016	It’s All Greek To Me (Well, Latin Actually)
2015	Truism
2014	Thank You
2013	Really
2012	Ordinary Five Minutes Longer
2011	The Wealth Of Sons (And Daughters)

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