Two Years Later (Now 1,004,000+ Deaths And Inflation)

I do not know which of our afflictions God intends that we overcome and which He means for us to bear.  But this is certain:  Some I have overcome, some I continue to bear.
—  Jean Toomer
[Another (2022) COVID Update:
This update is being written on 5 June 2022 (for posting on 12 June).  There have now been:  1,003,803 total deaths;  247 average deaths per day;  84,565,697 total cases (about 1% fatality rate);  97,611 new average for daily cases;  and, 258,747,147 vaccinations (at least one dose and over 5yrs old) – for a rough 83% of the (eligible) population.  Over 90% of hospitalizations and deaths are of those who have not been vaccinated.  I have not been able to determine if the (remaining) less than 10% are fully vaccinated and current with their booster(s).
What do we know?
Surprisingly little (IMHO) at the end of 18 months…  The early prediction was a fatality number of 2.2 million in the first 18 months IF WE DID NOTHING.  We temporarily shut down a significant portion of society (NOT the economy).  We halved the total deaths to date, but not the rate of deaths per cases.  The economy (and society) are roughly back to “normal”.  Most people can (do) now work from their offices (and / or homes).  Stores and restaurants / bars are mostly opened, but business levels have not recovered.  Most importantly:  we still have little to no publicly available information about the rates or effects of “long-term” COVID, the number of folks with current boosters, or the duration of the vaccine (or booster) effectiveness.  We DO know there is a general decrease in the vaccine(s) effectiveness – hence the recommendation for boosters.  We don’t know the breakdowns by factors such as age, gender, over-all health, etc.  I’m not saying the number(s) isn’t (/ aren’t) out there somewhere or that someone, somewhere isn’t tracking this data – only that I can’t find it readily available.  And, here we are:  “Only time will tell…“
As a side note:  much is being made about the pandemic’s effect on the economy – past and current.  While we (in the U.S.) have accepted deaths and illnesses as a “cost” of returning to a “normal” economy, the world’s manufacturer (China) has not.  They continue to impose local and wide area shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID whenever there is another surge.  Our (U.S.) demand continues to grow back to normal rates (pent up and current demand).  Goods are not being made / delivered to meet demand – so prices increase.  They will continue to do so until supply (roughly) matches demand.  No matter what the Federal Reserve does to interest rates to “cool” inflation, it will have little effect until the manufacturing / delivery conditions change.  How long will that be?  How long is a piece of string??  You never know until have it’s been finally cut (until it’s over).    —    KMAB]
Original post (from 2020):
[This is an unusual post for me.  This post is being written on 28 May, three days after the Memorial Day weekend.  Yesterday, the U.S. passed 100K in deaths due to COVID-19.  We are dying at just under 1,000 lives per day.  We are engaged in a great social experiment testing whether we can open our economy without a plan to deal with the virus.  This post is scheduled to go online roughly 15 days after the holiday weekend.  If the President’s gamble was correct, the average death rate will be at or below 1,000 per day.  If his gamble (with our lives) is incorrect, the death rate will be higher – and potentially much higher.  Only time will tell.   —   KMAB]
(2021) Follow Up to Last Year’s (2020) Post (115,000+):
The “post” above is from one year ago.  It is still too early to tell how good / bad a gamble President Trump took with the health of the nation.  Partly because it is still too soon to have had academia take a look at the data and partly because a number of states – mostly (but not exclusively) with Republican governors (Florida) – are using their office / administrations to hide the true / accurate numbers of illnesses and deaths for political reasons.  We do know that since the Inauguration, the vaccine count has gone from under 50 million to over 300 million.  Over 50% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of vaccine.  Part of this success is attributable to a competent President / Administration and part to the manufacture and distribution of the various vaccines ramping up.
As for our losses, the current “rolling” weekly death average is under 500 per day.  A few weeks ago, the CDC also updated the information on their site to “confirm” that not only are the vaccinated unlikely to get seriously ill and die (still 5 – 10% chance of illness, and less than 1% chance of death), you are also unlikely to become infected and ill at all (15 – 20% illness rate once vaccine period is completed).  Again, it’s too early to KNOW the exact numbers, but in this case it’s because (it is my understanding) “illness” is being self-reported.  Still, this is “good” news and we should see the economy and society begin to return to normal.  We’ve dodged a bullet this time folks.  I am not making light of the individual losses to family members and friends, but the virus could have been a lot more lethal and we still have a considerable way to go on getting the rest of the way to herd immunity.  Let’s hope we are better prepared for the next epidemic…
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On This Day In:
2021	One Year Later (Now 604,000+)
	Good Intentions
2020	115,000+
2019	One Generation’s View
2018	The One Thing
2017	Never Give Up
2016	Which Generation Are We?
	Congratulations, Kyle!
2015	Centered
2014	Economic Trinity
2013	At Both Ends
2012	Holding Allowance
2011	The Power Of Good

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Just Chill Dude…

Failure is nothing to get upset about.  It’s a fairly normal condition;  an inevitability in ninety-nine percent of all human undertakings.  Success is rare — that’s why people get so cranked up about it.
—     Frank Zappa
From his book:  “The Real Frank Zappa Book“
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On This Day In:
2021	Don’t Let The Violent Take It From Us
	Scratch Me
2020	Or Frightens Us
2019	The Best Gifts
2018	Sweep!!!
	We Must Be Living In TRULY Historic Times
2017	The Best?
2016	Timely Opinions On “The Donald”
	Even Allowing For Coincidence
2015	First Things First
2014	Without The Other
2013	Earn This
	Seeking A View
2012	Stumblin’ Along My Way
	We’re Proud Of You, Jr!
	Union Card
	Two Philosophies
2011	Simply Unpredictable

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Looking For Solutions To Climate Change

It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome.
—     William James
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On This Day In:
2021	Our Identity Crisis Continues
	There’s No Hiding Place
2020	In Need Of Concerted Action
2019	Anything / Everything
2018	Touching A Nerve
	Good Fences Make Good Neighbors
	I Have Realities In My Past
2017	Did I See You In Chapter 13?
2016	As I Recall
2015	Less And More Irritation
2014	That Marvelous Feeling
2013	Exceptional
2012	A Wild And Crazy Believer
2011	A Lack Of Scarcity
	The Joy Of Prevention

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Choose Possible

Once you choose hope, anything is possible.
—    Christopher Reeve
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On This Day In:
2021	Thousands
	Where Did All The Blue Skies Go?
2020	A Profound Source
2019	Sad Words
2018	Self-Sorted
2017	Right
2016	At Least One Step
2015	Month To Month Rental
2014	Professional Beliefs
2013	Books Are…
2012	True Distinguishing Marks
2010	Sub-300

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So Will Persistence

Motivation will almost always beat mere talent.
—     Norman R. Augustine
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On This Day In:
2020	Minute Fractions Of Happiness
	There’s Angels Everywhere
2019	Far Too Often
2018	A Divided / United Nation
2017	What We Want
2016	To The Extent
2015	Ambition
2014	More Branches To Climb
	Just In Time — Happy Thanksgiving (2014)
2013	For And Against
2012	De Mortuis Nil Nisi Bonum
2011	Similar And Different
2010	Reminiscing
	Differences

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Every Today

Write it on your heart that every day is the best day in the year.
―     Ralph Waldo Emerson
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On This Day In:
2020	Walking
	Another Night’s Dread
2019	Nowadays It Is Called Trumpism
2018	A Reluctant Joiner
	#IncompetentDonald: On The Road To Ruin
2017	He Says, It Says
2016	Marriage Advice
2015	To James (and ‘Tasha)
2014	Ssshhush, You Are Not Alone
2013	So I Chose Living…
2012	For However Short A Time…
2011	Take A Deep Breath And Continue (Or Not)
2010	Tootsie-Roll Day

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A Simple Choice, Really

If you’re an advocate of gentleness, you’re simplistic and naive.  If you’re an advocate of despair and hate, you’re sophisticated.
—    Dr. Leo F. Buscaglia
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On This Day In:
2021	A Simple Choice, Really
	Waaaay Before The Movie
2020	I Just Want To Stay Happy
	Fading…
2019	Show Righteousness, Not Fear
2018	Sounds Like Politics, Too
2017	Resist More
	Conservatives Are Not The Enemy
2016	Two Weeks To Go…
2015	Remembering
2014	The Creeping Death Of Civilization
	Orange October (X) – A Blue Morning Turns Into An Orange Evening
2013	License Problem
2012	Giants Win Game 2 Of The 2012 World Series 2 To 0!!!
	Adage, n.
	Questions Women Should Ask Before Voting…
2011	What Are You Looking At?

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Looking Up

This is why I much prefer autumn to spring, because in autumn you look at the sky.  In spring, the earth.
—     Søren Kierkegaard
[Found at one of the blogs I follow:  https://gabrieleromano.wordpress.com/
The specific post was:  https://gabrieleromano.wordpress.com/2021/10/02/october-has-arrived/
Please visit the original site if you have a spare moment…    —    kmab]
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On This Day In:
2021	Looking Up
	Shiny
2020	#45: Or All-Consuming Greed
	You Could Have Told Me Yourself
2019	Not Personal
2018	Preference For Irrationality
2017	All At Once
2016	One Of My Vices
2015	The War Lord
2014	Orange October (II) – Giants Win NLDS Game 2 In 18 Innings (2 to 1)!!
	Acknowledging Doubt
2013	Fulfilled Acceptance
2012	Error Is Tolerated Here (So Far)
2011	In Defense Of Pain

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What Will You Become?

Man often becomes what he believes himself to be.  If I keep on saying to myself that I cannot do a certain thing, it is possible that I may end by really becoming incapable of doing it.  On the contrary, if I have the belief that I can do it, I shall surely acquire the capacity to do it even if I may not have it at the beginning.
––     Mahatma Gandhi
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On This Day In:
2021	What Will You Become?
	Life’s Illusions
2020	Rules Of Morality
	Tempting Fate
2019	Good People On Both Sides?
2018	Schedule, Please
2017	No Hope For #DumbDonald
2016	Do Something
2015	What Are You Making Now?
2014	Like Fire Burning In My Heart
2013	Oh Yes He Can!
2012	Enquiries
2011	The Prize: Understanding
2010	Can You Tell My Scanner Works?
	Rebecca – The Early Years
	James – The Early Years
	Brothers By Another Mother

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One Year Later (Now 604,000+)

I do not know which of our afflictions God intends that we overcome and which He means for us to bear.  But this is certain:  Some I have overcome, some I continue to bear.
—  Jean Toomer
[This is an unusual post for me.  This post is being written on 28 May, three days after the Memorial Day weekend.  Yesterday, the U.S. passed 100K in deaths due to COVID-19.  We are dying at just under 1,000 lives per day.  We are engaged in a great social experiment testing whether we can open our economy without a plan to deal with the virus.  This post is scheduled to go online roughly 15 days after the holiday weekend.  If the President’s gamble was correct, the average death rate will be at or below 1,000 per day.  If his gamble (with our lives) is incorrect, the death rate will be higher – and potentially much higher.  Only time will tell.   —   KMAB]
Follow Up to Last Year’s Post (115,000+):
The “post” above is from one year ago.  It is still too early to tell how good / bad a gamble President Trump took with the health of the nation.  Partly because it is still too soon to have had academia take a look at the data and partly because a number of states – mostly (but not exclusively) with Republican governors (Florida) – are using their office / administrations to hide the true / accurate numbers of illnesses and deaths for political reasons.  We do know that since the Inauguration, the vaccine count has gone from under 50 million to over 300 million.  Over 50% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of vaccine.  Part of this success is attributable to a competent President / Administration and part to the manufacture and distribution of the various vaccines ramping up.
As for our losses, the current “rolling” weekly death average is under 500 per day.  A few weeks ago, the CDC also updated the information on their site to “confirm” that not only are the vaccinated unlikely to get seriously ill and die (still 5 – 10% chance of illness, and less than 1% chance of death), you are also unlikely to become infected and ill at all (15 – 20% illness rate once vaccine period is completed).  Again, it’s too early to KNOW the exact numbers, but in this case it’s because (it is my understanding) “illness” is being self-reported.  Still, this is “good” news and we should see the economy and society begin to return to normal.  We’ve dodged a bullet this time folks.  I am not making light of the individual losses to family members and friends, but the virus could have been a lot more lethal and we still have a considerable way to go on getting the rest of the way to herd immunity.  Let’s hope we are better prepared for the next epidemic…
.
On This Day In:
2020	115,000+
2019	One Generation’s View
2018	The One Thing
2017	Never Give Up
2016	Which Generation Are We?
	Congratulations, Kyle!
2015	Centered
2014	Economic Trinity
2013	At Both Ends
2012	Holding Allowance
2011	The Power Of Good

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Thrive

Make up your mind that no matter what comes your way, no matter how difficult, no matter how unfair, you will do more than simply survive.  You will thrive in spite of it.
—    Joel Osteen
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On This Day In:
2020	Perceived Wisdom
	Lessons Are Extra And Blondell
2019	Live It
2018	Mostly Unconsciously For Most People
	Desperately Ginger Lass
2017	Explaining My Equally Meager Results
2016	Every Tool And Every Chance
2015	Something That You Love
2014	Not Really At All
2013	Listening And Deserving
2012	I’m Still Not Certain
2011	True, False And Useful

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All I See Are Nails

The problem is not the problem.  The problem is your attitude about the problem.
—    Captain Jack Sparrow
[This just reminded me of the saying:  “When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”    —   KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2020	We Will Get Through This
2019	I Asked My Family Doctor Just What I Had
2018	You Have Just Begun To Climb
2017	Equal Protection Under Law
2016	A Stubbornly Persistent Illusion
2015	Or You Don’t
2014	If You Ever Fall…
2013	Glory Days (part 2)
2012	They Follow A Pattern – If You Know What I Mean
	What I Live For (Precis)
2011	Giving

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Surrender With Hope

Don’t despair:  despair suggests you are in total control and know what is coming.  You don’t – surrender to events with hope.
—    Alain de Botton
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On This Day In:
2020	Two Midway
	Invisible Hands
2019	Speaking Of #45
2018	A Higher Loyalty
	RIP – Our Silver Lady
2017	Slowly Cutting Their Own Throats
2016	Man’s Advantage Over God
2015	Deeply
2014	Hi-Yo Silver, Away!
2013	Warning:
2012	Thinking About Beauty
2011	A Founding Father’s Argument Against Public Funding Of Religious Education
	Weekend Update
	So Far, So Good

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In Pursuit

I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection.  ’Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death.
—    Thomas Paine
[While I agree with Paine – in general – on the admirable traits required to accomplish great things.  I am equally reminded of the saying (I made up based on the title of a Star Trek – Original Series episode): “there is no truth in beauty, although there is a beauty in truth“.    Anyway, I would caution readers the above quote is equally valid for many mass murderers and terrorists – maybe even more so.     —    KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2020	Close, Sustained And Careful
2019	#45: Spread The Fear
	Fear The Beards
2018	Slice, Nick, Cut, Bled
2017	Like Most Blogs
2016	The Window Left Open
	Free Experience
2015	Reality == Perception / (Times Reported * 10)
2014	Tear Da Roof Off Da Sucka
2013	Exposed Spirits
2012	Ow-ow
2011	Focused Relatives

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You Decide

Strength does not come from winning.  Your struggles develop your strengths.  When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.
––     Arnold Schwarzenegger
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On This Day In:
2020	Making Me
2019	Inside Your Head
2018	Lingering Curiosity
2017	Just Kidding
2016	The Danger Of Walls
2015	Protection
2014	Let It Go
2013	Don’t Know And Not Telling
2012	A Challenge For Progress
2011	Dependent Difficulty

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