The Heart Of Science

We have found that scientific laws pervade all of nature, that the same rules apply on Earth as in the skies, that we can find a resonance, a harmony, between the way we think and the way the world works…
As a boy Kepler had been captured by a vision of cosmic splendor, a harmony of the worlds which he sought so tirelessly all his life.  Harmony in this world eluded him.  His three laws of planetary motion represent, we now know, a real harmony of the worlds, but to Kepler they were only incidental to his quest for a cosmic system based on the Perfect Solids, a system which, it turns out, existed only in his mind.  Yet from his work, we have found that scientific laws pervade all of nature, that the same rules apply on Earth as in the skies, that we can find a resonance, a harmony, between the way we think and the way the world works.
When he found that his long cherished beliefs did not agree with the most precise observations, he accepted the uncomfortable facts, he preferred the hard truth to his dearest illusions.  That is the heart of science.
—    Carl Sagan
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On This Day In:
2020	Up Again
2019	Advice From #1 To #45
2018	How Much I Will Miss The Trump Administration
2017	We Need To Continue Experimenting
2016	Consistently
2015	We Must Dissent
2014	Now What?
2013	Judgement
2012	Stuck In My Mind
	Life’s Hope
2011	Just Getting Up
	Directions Please

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Democracy, Pandemic, Economy And Climate Change

In our obscurity – in all this vastness – there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.  It is up to us.
—    Carl Sagan
[An Inauguration and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords are just a start.  —  KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2020	Hoping For #46 In January 2021
2019	Interesting, But Not Fascinating
	But Try To Eat The Low-Hanging First
2018	Me, Too
2017	Apt Enough?
2016	Now Or Ever
	21, Pause, Restart
2015	I Am Shocked, Sir, Shocked…
	Lucy & FSND-2
2014	Less Difficult
2013	The Spirit Of Liberty
2012	The Essential Freedom Of Aloneness
2011	A Problem Of Scale
	Fred Doesn’t Live Here Anymore
2010	Another Book, Another Jog…

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Where Did All The Blue Skies Go?

Mercy Mercy Me (The Ecology)
Favorite Line(s):
Whoa,
Oh,
Mercy mercy me
Oh,
Things ain’t what they used to be,
No no
Where did all the blue skies go?
Poison is the wind that blows
From the North and South and East
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On This Day In:
2020	A Profound Source
2019	Sad Words
2018	Self-Sorted
2017	Right
2016	At Least One Step
2015	Month To Month Rental
2014	Professional Beliefs
2013	Books Are…
2012	True Distinguishing Marks
2010	Sub-300

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Our Fate Is Up To Us

Since this series’ maiden voyage, the impossible has come to pass:  Mighty walls that maintained insuperable ideological differences have come tumbling down; deadly enemies have embraced and begun to work together.  The imperative to cherish the Earth and protect the global environment that sustains all of us has become widely accepted, and we’ve begun, finally, the process of reducing the obscene number of weapons of mass destruction.  Perhaps we have, after all, decided to choose life.  But we still have light years to go to ensure that choice.  Even after the summits and the ceremonies and the treaties, there are still some 50,000 nuclear weapons in the world — and it would require the detonation of only a tiny fraction of them to produce a nuclear winter, the predicted global climatic catastrophe that would result from the smoke and the dust lifted into the atmosphere by burning cities and petroleum facilities.
The world scientific community has begun to sound the alarm about the grave dangers posed by depleting the protective ozone shield and by greenhouse warming, and again we’re taking some mitigating steps, but again those steps are too small and too slow.  The discovery that such a thing as nuclear winter was really possible evolved out of the studies of Martian dust storms.  The surface of Mars, fried by ultraviolet light, is also a reminder of why it’s important to keep our ozone layer intact.  The runaway greenhouse effect on Venus is a valuable reminder that we must take the increasing greenhouse effect on Earth seriously.
Important lessons about our environment have come from spacecraft missions to the planets.  By exploring other worlds we safeguard this one.  By itself, I think this fact more than justifies the money our species has spent in sending ships to other worlds.  It is our fate to live during one of the most perilous and, at the same time, one of the most hopeful chapters in human history.
Our science and our technology have posed us a profound question.  Will we learn to use these tools with wisdom and foresight before it’s too late?  Will we see our species safely through this difficult passage so that our children and grandchildren will continue the great journey of discovery still deeper into the mysteries of the Cosmos?  That same rocket and nuclear and computer technology that sends our ships past the farthest known planet can also be used to destroy our global civilization.  Exactly the same technology can be used for good and for evil.  It is as if there were a God who said to us, “I set before you two ways:  You can use your technology to destroy yourselves or to carry you to the planets and the stars.  It’s up to you.”
—    Carl Sagan
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On This Day In:
2020	Still Willing
2019	Another Prayer
2018	After Silence
2017	Are You Looking Forward To A Trump Presidency?
2016	Three Errors From Eureka
2015	Limiting Choices
2014	Praise The Lord And Pass The Hypocrisy
	That Sound
2013	Still Waiting For Answers
2012	Informal Leadership
2011	A Little More Progress
2010	Bec’s Gone Again…

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I Hope She Keeps Laughing

The earth laughs in flowers.
―    Ralph Waldo Emerson
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On This Day In:
2019	Ruff Clean
2018	Sounds Like A Blog To Me
2017	My Fear For America
2016	Proceeding Still
2015	Seeing Rainbows
	I Am A Runner
2014	The Law Of The Perversity Of Nature
2013	One Standard Deviation
2012	High Anxiety
2011	And I’m Taking Me There
2010	1,000

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Listening To The Trees

There are occasions when you can hear the mysterious language of the Earth, in water, or coming through the trees, emanating from the mosses, seeping through the undercurrents of the soil; but you have to be willing to wait and receive.
—     John Hay
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On This Day In:
2019	In Silence
	Not Much Light Here
2018	A Gift
2017	Unless You Genuinely Are Small
2016	B1
2015	Five Things
2014	Have Faith
2013	Found In A Mine
2012	Two-Sided Coin
2011	Passionately Scorned Rules

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The Blind Squirrel And The Suppression Of Uncomfortable Ideas

There are many hypotheses in science that are wrong.  That’s perfectly alright; it’s the aperture to finding out what’s right.  Science is a self-correcting process.  To be accepted, new ideas must survive the most rigorous standards of evidence and scrutiny.  The worst aspect of the Velikovsky affair is not that many of his ideas were wrong or silly or in gross contradiction to the facts; rather, the worst aspect is that some scientists attempted to suppress Velikovsky’s ideas.  The suppression of uncomfortable ideas may be common in religion or in politics, but it is not the path to knowledge and there is no place for it in the endeavor of science.  We do not know beforehand where fundamental insights will arise from about our mysterious and lovely solar system, and the history of our study of the solar system shows clearly that accepted and conventional ideas are often wrong and that fundamental insights can arise from the most unexpected sources.
—   Carl Sagan
[Accidents happen…  As the saying goes:  “Even the blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut.”  And, so it appears President Trump has (purely by stupid chance) stated a truth…
A few days ago, while visiting California to view the destruction being caused by wildfires, the President was advised one of the reasons for the massive fires is “Climate Change”.  Trump replied:  “It’ll start getting cooler.  You just watch.“
“I wish science agreed with you,” Crowfoot (Wade Crowfoot is California’s secretary for natural resources) countered.
“Well, I don’t think science knows, actually,” Trump said.
As bizarre as it sounds, President Trump is correct (for all the wrong reasons).  To start off, in less than a week Autumn starts.  Followed by Winter!  So, yes, the daily temperature will start getting cooler.  The second part is the “squirrel finding the nut“.  No, “science” doesn’t KNOW if the climate will stay hot or get hotter.  Just as science doesn’t KNOW the sun will rise in the East tomorrow.  Science does, however, have a pretty good certainty that IF the sun does rise tomorrow, it will be in the East.  President Trump’s BASELESS claims “Climate Change” is a “hoax” and / or invented by the Chinese to cripple our economy are both as unscientific as they are silly, but that doesn’t make his “uncomfortable idea” wrong (from a scientific perspective).  His claim also erroneously conflates two issues:  1) is climate change real; and, 2) if it is real, what is causing it?
And, this is the problem (for science and all rational humanity):  we have overwhelming data supporting the theory of climate change; we don’t have overwhelming evidence of causation – just a LOT of data of correlation.  Our little blind squirrel is denying both the substantial data of change AND the substantial data of correlation.
True science requires that we admit the possibility “Climate Change” is not happening – despite the multiple decades of data which support the scientific conclusion “Climate Change” 1) is real, 2) has already happened, and 3) is getting worse.  More precisely, we must admit the possibility that our current understanding of why “Climate Change” appears to be happening is not valid, i.e., it’s not being caused by human production of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The policy question is:  What if our little squirrel is correct?   Well, if he is correct and there is no climate change, then “eventually” the consistent rise in temperature which the planet has been experiencing with revert back to the norm.  If humanity is lucky, this will happen soon (and quickly) and life will go on pretty much as it has for the last 10,000 years (or at least since the last major ice age).  Policy decision:  do nothing and hope for the best.
Alternatively, if he is correct the climate change (which has been accelerating for the last 50 years) is not caused by humans, what IS the cause and how do we slow, stop or reverse it?  If we don’t discover the “real” cause, humanity (and most of life as we know it) on Earth will become extinct.  Unfortunately, because the data has been so one sided (climate change is real and is happening NOW), we don’t have any good / reasonable alternative theories to human caused CO2 emissions.  Policy decision: we need to pore tons of money into research to come up with an alternative root cause which we can then pore TONS more money into correcting / fixing.   (All the while hoping and praying we’re not too late to fix the problem.)
And if our little squirrel is wrong about Climate Change and its cause?  Well, despite what we’ve seen over the last 20 years (droughts and wildfires / hurricanes and typhoons), you ain’t seen nothing yet!  Forty(40%) percent of humanity lives within 60 miles of an ocean.  What happens when the ocean levels rise and large swathes of that coastal area becomes uninhabitable due to flooding, storm surges and salination of coastal water supplies?  What happens to sea life when the salination in the oceans changes due to the increased ice melts dumping fresh water into their environment?  What happens to the rest of the life on Earth when there is a vast die-off of life in the world’s oceans?  Policy decision:  we better get busy because our window of opportunity to save the habitable planet we’ve known for the last 10,000 years is closing fast!!!
Our little squirrel is in his 70’s and probably won’t live to experience the full results of his blindness.  Somehow, I don’t find that comforting.  —  KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2019	Future Tools
	Three Swedish Girls
2018	Four Loves
	Favorite Westerns
2017	Faith In Science
2016	What The World Calls
2015	Say What?
2014	Start Today
2013	Fly!!
2012	Greater Love
2011	Before

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Trump Reaffirms His Administration Is The Cause Of West Coast Wildfires

Way back in November 2018, #PresidentIdiot said the problem of California forest fires was caused by poor forest management and not by “Climate Change.” He suggested raking 13 million acres of Federal land to prevent future fires.  Today (14 September 2020), #IncompetentTrump restated this opinion (if not his solution).
Let’s look at some of the “facts” about “forests” in Washington, Oregon and California (WA numbers are rounded, so they don’t add up to 100%):
Washington State is 53% forested.  Of that:
44% is Federal owned
36% is privately owned
14% is State and county owned
8% is Tribal
Oregon 49% forested.  Of that:
60% is Federal (Forest Service or Park Service)
3% is State and Local gov
35% is Private
2% is Tribal
California 33% forested.  Of that:
57% is Federal owned
40% is privately owned
3% is State owned
The President of the United States (that would be #IncompetentDonald), said TWO years ago, the problem of wildfires was caused by mismanagement.  Two years later, he’s still saying the same thing.  In two of the three states, the Federal government owns and is responsible for the majority of the “forested” land.  In the third state (Washington), the Federal government owns the largest percentage of forested land, but not the majority.
This means he admits for the last two years his administration has been knowingly mismanaging the forested land in these three states.  Since that date was almost two years into his presidency, that means he has been mismanaging the forests for almost four years.
Today, it appears the President has inadvertently told the truth:  he has mismanaged the National Forests for the whole of his Administration.
Now, this doesn’t mean I agree his mismanagement is the cause of the fires.  Only, that I agree he has mismanaged the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management (basically, the Department of the Interior).
Here’s three more bits of information I picked up while browsing around looking for information about “forest fires” vs “wildfires”.  They don’t have anything to do with President Trump:
“Forestland” is land that is capable of having at least 10% cover of trees.
—   Oregonloggers.org
“Forestland” means any woodland, brushland, timberland, grazing land or clearing that, during any time of the year, contains enough forest growth, slashing or vegetation to constitute, in the judgment of the forester, a fire hazard, regardless of how the land is zoned or taxed. As used in this subsection, “clearing” means any grassland, improved area, lake, meadow, mechanically or manually cleared area, road, rocky area, stream or other similar forestland opening that is surrounded by or contiguous to forestland and that has been included in areas classified as forestland under ORS 526.305
—   Oregon State law
Timberland is “forest land” that is producing, or is capable of producing, more than 20 cubic feet per acre per year of industrial wood crops under natural conditions, that is not withdrawn from timber utilization, and that is not associated with urban or rural development.
Forest land is land at least 10% stocked by forest trees of any size, or formerly having had such tree cover, and not currently developed for nonforest use. The minimum area for classification of forest land is one acre.
Reserved forest land is withdrawn from timber utilization through statute, administrative regulation, or designation.
—   Illinois Dept of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences
[Of course the title to this post is a bit “tongue-in-cheek”…  The #LiarInChief would NEVER accept responsibility for anything the least bit negative.  He only takes credit when something “good” happens – irrespective of whether or not he had anything to do with it.   But hey, that’s OUR President for you!  —   KMAB]
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On This Day In:
2019	A Lifestyle
	Day 16: Cheat Day
2018	The Children Are Our Future
2017	And Three
2016	Nine Parts Mystery
2015	Little Or No Common Ground
2014	Just Between Me
2013	Beyond The Strings
2012	Saving The Union
2011	Still And Too Often

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A Day With No Sun

Yesterday, I woke up to darkness.  The alarm clock said it was after 8am, but the bedroom was DARK!  I slipped out of bed and went to look out the window and I felt very much like what the surviving dinosaurs must have felt the day after the meteor struck.  “Well, I’m still here, but it looks like Hell out there!”
The sky was a dark reddish, orange and grey with a steady (but light) ash-fall.  The streetlights were still on, because the day-light sensors were telling the lights it’s still night-time.
Here’s a shot looking east to where the sun normally is at this time of morning…
Here are a couple of shots of my car (which is parked under our carport)…
Here’s a shot of the ashes covering our backyard garden table…  The shadows you see are from the motion-activated yard lights which only come on when it is “dark”.  They don’t come on during dusk / evening / twilight.  Only when it is night.
The “day” brightened in the mid-afternoon before quickly getting dark again.  The “orb” of the sun was never visible in the sky.
Just as a matter of personal curiosity, the lack of visible spectrum light made the greens, oranges and reds REALLY pop out with incredibly vibrant color.  Truly bizarre!  Or, as Mister Spock would say:  “Fascinating!”
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On This Day In:
2019	Where And Why
	Day 12: Pause Or Plateau?
	Eating Later
2018	Here And Hope
2017	Choose
2016	All I Ever Wanted
2015	Compassionate Toward Yourself
2014	All And None
2013	Voices In The Dark
2012	Does Uncommonly Flexible = Flip-Flopping?
2011	A Modest Review Of A Modern Day Classic
	Encouragement Is The Path To Immortality

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A Tiny And Fragile World

Our intelligence and our technology have given us the power to affect the climate.  How will we use this power?  Are we willing to tolerate ignorance and complacency in matters that affect the entire human family?  Do we value short-term advantages above the welfare of the Earth?  Or will we think on longer time scales, with concern for our children and our grandchildren, to understand and protect the complex life-support systems of our planet?  The Earth is a tiny and fragile world.  It needs to be cherished.
Human beings have a demonstrated talent for self-deception when their emotions are stirred.
—   Carl Sagan
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On This Day In:
2019	Day 1: Done
	#IncompetentDonald Fails On All Three
2018	I Put It Down To Bad Teachers
	Day 34: In And Out
2017	And The Future Is Now
2016	I Am
2015	Positively Aiming Higher
2014	Suspicious Minds
2013	We Are Not Alone
2012	Lawyer, n.
2011	Each Day Remember…
2010	Impossible Dreams of Camelot

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A Prayer For China

Today I am offering up a special prayer for the people in central China.  The “Three Gorges Dam” is one of the largest dams in the world.  It spans the Yangtze River.  It is at flood stage and has been going through emergency release procedures for a number of days as the area has experienced torrential rains.  Thousands are currently being evacuated for reasons of safety and have already been flooded from their homes.  If the dam should collapse, the effects will be devastating for tens of millions with the potential to reach 100 million.
For any readers who might say: “What’s China got to do with me?”  You should be aware that the central region of China is one of the main manufacturing centers in the world and they produce a significant portion of the personal protective equipment (PPE) – masks and gowns, worn by the medical staff and first responders around the world.  Even if the worst (dam collapse) is avoided, there is still a high probability of shortages and delays in the manufacture and delivery of PPE for the next few months.
Climate change, pandemics, global trade…  We really are ONE world and I encourage everyone to think positive thoughts / offer prayers for the people of China.
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On This Day In:
2019	Historic Contact
	All Good
2018	History Judges Incompetent Presidencies, Too
2017	Our Confident New President
2016	Ways
2015	Be Happy, Too
2014	At Least Smile
2013	Comfortably Bound
2012	Certainty
	Thinking About Fathers
2011	And In Every Level Of Media

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A Better Synthesis

There is nothing wrong with, and much to be gained by, using our mind analytically, but to use it almost exclusively in this way is unbalanced and has a not insignificant responsibility for the perilous state of affairs on our planet.  Though the odds against it happening seem to be mounting, perhaps a more intuitive way of thinking about he world might help us to recognize and reduce in time our overdevelopment of and overdependence on the ever-growing machinery that is supposed to make our lives easier and better.  We are swept along by technological development so that in our urban environment, many of us interact increasingly with electronic devices and less with other human beings.  In addition, our culture is gradually losing our knowledge of and our direct connection with the natural or unprocessed things of the earth.  With a more intuitive way of thinking about our lives could come the realization that our very survival may depend on the other forms of life our present political and economic systems are destroying.  At the least, a better synthesis than we have now between the analytical and the intuitive, in which the intuitive gets equal attention, seems necessary to our longer-term welfare.
—   Herman Kauz
From his book: “Push-Hands: The Handbook For Non-Competitive Tai Chi Practice With A Partner“
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On This Day In:
2019	It’s Only Funny If You’re Old Enough To Know What “Film” Was
2018	Bourne Wicked Blonde
	First Things First
2017	This Explains A Lot
2016	Me Too
2015	A Proper Price
2014	Well Hard
2013	Because I Can
	Eloquence, n.
2012	Why Bother?
2011	Peculiar Notions

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Still More Hope Than Fact

Our global civilization is clearly on the edge of failure and the most important task it faces, preserving the lives and well-being of its citizens and the future habitability of the planet.  But if we’re willing to live with the growing likelihood of nuclear war shouldn’t we also been willing to explore vigorously every possible means to prevent nuclear war.  Shouldn’t we consider in every nation major changes in the traditional ways of doing things, a fundamental restructuring of economic political social and religious institutions.  We’ve reached a point where there can be no more special interests or special cases, nuclear arms threaten every person on the Earth.  Fundamental changes in society are sometimes labelled impractical or contrary to human nature, as if nuclear war were practical or as if there’s only one human nature.  But fundamental changes can clearly be made, we’re surrounded by them.  In the last two centuries abject slavery which was with us for thousands of years has almost entirely been eliminated in a stirring worldwide revolution.  Women, systematically mistreated for millennia are gradually gaining the political and economic power traditionally denied them and some wars of aggression have recently been stopped or curtailed because of a revulsion felt by the people in the aggressor nations.  The old appeals to racial, sexual, and religious chauvinism and to rabid nationalist fervor are beginning not to work.  A new consciousness is developing which sees the earth as a single organism and recognizes that an organism at war with itself is doomed.  We are one planet.  One of the great revelations of the age of space exploration is the image of the earth finite and lonely, somehow vulnerable, bearing the entire human species through the oceans of space and time.
—    Carl Sagan
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On This Day In:
2019	The Ones Worth Remembering, Anyway
	Boot Edge Edge (My New T)
2018	To Reach The Next Threshold
2017	Streaking Tales
2016	Singular Reality
2015	He Says It’s Hard To Get There From Here
2014	Question From A Founding Father
2013	Make Heroes
2012	See And Hold
2011	Am Not, Are So

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We Have A Window

In order to slow down climate change, we must solve four seemingly unsolvable problems.  We must eliminate poverty.  We must change the unsustainable lifestyles of so many of us.  We must abolish corruption.  And we must think about our growing human population.  There are 7.7 billion of us today, and by 2050, the UN predicts there will be 9.7 billion.  It is no wonder people have despaired.  But I believe we have a window of time to have an impact.
—  Jane Goodall
From her opinion / article: “The devastation of climate change is real.  But there are reasons to be hopeful“
The article appears in: “Time Magazine“,  dtd:  September 23, 2019
The article is online at:  https://time.com/5669043/jane-goodall-climate-change/
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On This Day In:
2019	No Escape
2018	Except When It Is From The Oval Office
2017	Bad Karma
2016	Poor Management Choices
2015	Is It Still Dark Out?
2014	Rule One
2013	Spelling God’s Name
2012	Love Your Life And Sing
	Feeling Under the Weather?
2011	Cheers, Friend!

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The Butterflies Are In Trouble

We’re in very bad trouble if we don’t understand the planet we’re trying to save.
We’ve arranged a civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology.
We are like butterflies who flutter for a day and think it is forever.
—    Carl Sagan
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On This Day In:
2019	The Deep Center
2018	Oh, Heaven (Too)
2017	Now Pausing Makes Sense
2016	Just Spicy
	Only One Part
2015	Positive Acts Of Creation
2014	One Thing Is Clear
2013	Corrections
	See Greatness
2012	Gemutlichkeit
2011	Back On The Asphalt

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