Archive for August 29th, 2012

It is the paradox of the close call.  Probability wise, near misses aren’t successes.  They are indicators of near failure.  And if the flaw is systemic, it requires only a small twist of fate for the next incident to result in disaster.  Rather than celebrating then ignoring close calls, we should be learning from them and doing our very best to prevent their recurrence.  But we often don’t.
    —     Ben Paynter
From his Wired Magazine article:  “The Fire Next Time
Aug 2012
[This is very reminiscent of the writing of Nassim Taleb – “The Black Swan” in that we are poor judges of probability and take credit for our success while attributing failure to bad luck.  Failing to review “successes” for near failure systemic flaws makes the disaster seem inevitable in hindsight.  But, we typically don’t learn from our successes.  Do we?     —     kmab]
On This Day In:
2021 How Learning Infections Begin
Stay Young At Heart
2020 Policies Not People
Just Thinking To Myself
2019 Should I Start With My Religion?
2018 Fear And Hope
Day 33: Good News & Prep
2017 Directions
2016 Handle With Care
2015 Nothing But Pride
2014 Go
2013 Well, Does It?
2012 Near Misses Aren’t Successes
2011 Uncomfortable Feelings
2010 San Francisco (favorites)…
Bullets or Butter?

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