Near Misses Aren’t Successes

It is the paradox of the close call.  Probability wise, near misses aren’t successes.  They are indicators of near failure.  And if the flaw is systemic, it requires only a small twist of fate for the next incident to result in disaster.  Rather than celebrating then ignoring close calls, we should be learning from them and doing our very best to prevent their recurrence.  But we often don’t.
—     Ben Paynter
From his Wired Magazine article:  “The Fire Next Time“
Aug 2012
[This is very reminiscent of the writing of Nassim Taleb – “The Black Swan” in that we are poor judges of probability and take credit for our success while attributing failure to bad luck.  Failing to review “successes” for near failure systemic flaws makes the disaster seem inevitable in hindsight.  But, we typically don’t learn from our successes.  Do we?     —     kmab]
.
On This Day In:
2021	How Learning Infections Begin
	Stay Young At Heart
2020	Policies Not People
	Just Thinking To Myself
2019	Should I Start With My Religion?
2018	Fear And Hope
	Day 33: Good News & Prep
2017	Directions
2016	Handle With Care
2015	Nothing But Pride
2014	Go
2013	Well, Does It?
2012	Near Misses Aren’t Successes
2011	Uncomfortable Feelings
2010	San Francisco (favorites)…
	Bullets or Butter?

Read Full Post »