Posts Tagged ‘Probability’

I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities.  It’s like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing.  I may introduce something new to the probability stream.
  —  Elon Musk
On This Day In:
2018 Pity The Nation (Part 2)
Day 1: Redux
2017 Good Blogs, Too
2016 My Prediction For #AmnestyDon
2015 Worth A Try
2014 I’m Feeling It
2013 May I Have A Little More, Please?
2012 Increasing Doubt
2011 You Can’t Touch This

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It is the paradox of the close call.  Probability wise, near misses aren’t successes.  They are indicators of near failure.  And if the flaw is systemic, it requires only a small twist of fate for the next incident to result in disaster.  Rather than celebrating then ignoring close calls, we should be learning from them and doing our very best to prevent their recurrence.  But we often don’t.
  —  Ben Paynter
From his Wired Magazine article: “The Fire Next Time
Aug 2012
[This is very reminiscent of the writing of Nassim Taleb – “The Black Swan” in that we are poor judges of probability and take credit for our success while attributing failure to bad luck.  Failing to review “successes” for near failure systemic flaws makes the disaster seem inevitable in hindsight.  But, we typically don’t learn from our successes.  Do we?  —  KMAB]

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