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Posts Tagged ‘Super Bowl XLVI Prediction’

It’s always fun to spout off before the SuperBowl.  It gives you an annual chance to go out on a limb and then eat a major portion of crow…  So here’s my prediction.
 

Patriots in a surprisingly easy win (Pats: 37  Giants: 17) and despite the score, it isn’t that close.
 

I think Brady will have a hot day.  I think he’ll get rid of the ball quickly and be on target.  This is where a Hall of Famer becomes a legend – equaling Bradshaw and Montana in SB wins (4).
 

The same is true for Belichick.  Although already considered a great coach, four SB wins elevates him to Knoll status.
 

Why?
 

Simple.  Both teams are surprisingly similar.  Good to great scoring offenses and defenses which have struggled throughout the year, but which rounded into form and then have played well in getting to the SB. 
 

Neither team has a great running game.  The Giants strike me as bigger and and more lumbering.  This helps in the cold and wet – the game is indoors – so this doesn’t help.  The Pats seem quicker and more productive – not a lot, but football is a game of inches.  If the Giants can get a late lead and pound away, they win – but I don’t think the former will happen, so neither will the latter.  The Pats will balance the running and throwing better and win.  The Giants threw a LOT against the Niners and barely won.  I don’t think they’ll be as effective against the Pats, which will put more pressure on their running game, which will cycle back to Manning throwing more.  Against the Niners, the Giants threw 58 times!!  Even given the additional tosses during the extra period, that’s normally a signal you’re losing the game.
 

Everyone loves the Giants pass rush – and it does appear fearsome, however, the Niners mostly contained it and I think the Pats have much better weapons than the Niners, so I see Brady having time and being able to step into his throws.  If he can, he’ll eat the Giants secondary alive short (5-10 yards) and deep (15+ yards).  This is how the Pats control the opposing defenses.
 

The same is not true for the Giants.  The Niners tore them up with multiple sacks (6), quarterback hits (12)  and additional hurries.  As I said earlier, the Giants will throw often and that means they’re behind and losing.  The Niners should have had two picks and a fumble recovery.  Eli’s luck runs out and the Pats make those picks (at least two, probably four).  The key is the pass rush up the middle by Wilfork.  If he has two sacks and two hits at the end of the 1st half, the Pats win.
 

There’s no question in my mind that the Giants have the better wide-outs, but I don’t think it wins the game for them.  The problem they have is they don’t throw that well short.  They stretch the field and use that to create gaps at the 7-15 yard level.  The Niners could not stop those catches, the Pats will.
 

The Pats have two tight-ends.  The Niners only had one.  The Giants shut down our (the Niners) wide-outs and said, “You won’t win with just Vernon Davis.”  Davis had a great day, but we (the Niners) didn’t win.  I don’t think the Giants will get pressure on Brady.  I don’t think they will shutdown the Pats wide-outs.  And, I don’t believe the Giants can shut down both of the Pats tight-ends – even with Gronkowski’s injury. 
 

Bottom line: 1st quarter – Pats 10, Giants 0
2nd Quarter – Pats 24, Giants 7
3rd Quarter – Pats 34, Giants 10
4th Quarter – Pats 37, Giants 17
 
So now we’ll see…

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