Prescient (Or Not?)

Russia is still contending with the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Russia can meddle in Ukraine at the margins, but threats to fully invade and occupy a country of more than 44 million people aren’t credible.  That big a move would cost too many Russian lives and too many rubles for a chronically weak – and weakening – Russian economy.  In recent months, Belarus provided the latest example of the post-Soviet demand for fundamental change and the need to shoot people to keep protests under control.  In the most recent presidential election in Moldova, a Harvard-educated economist toppled a pro-Kremlin incumbent.  Last year, Turkey’s backing for Azerbaijan dealt a humiliating defeat to Russian ally Armenia in a region that Russia once dominated.  Beijing is increasingly competing for influence with Moscow among the former Soviet Central Asian states.
—     Ian Bremmer
From his opinion piece:  “The Risk Report: What game is Putin playing?“
Appearing in:  Time Magazine;  dtd:  21/28 June 2021
[It seems the “threat” of invasion was a little more “credible” than Mr. Bremmer believed (the editorial was from 2021).  IF the West continues to support Ukraine and IF Putin doesn’t resort to tactical nukes, it appears Mr. Bremmer will ultimately be proven correct that Russia bit off it bit more than it could chew (let alone conquer).    —    kmab]
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Democratic Aspiration

Democracy remains the form of government most likely to create lasting security and prosperity.  A few oil-producing nations aside, the world’s wealthiest countries are democracies, and democracies are also less likely to go to war with one another.
…
The findings from these countries suggest that while democracy remains a popular aspiration around the world, “attraction” will prove more effective than “promotion” as a way to help democracy expand.
The report argues that the U.S. has made four main mistakes in fostering democracy abroad.  U.S. policy­makers have focused on the laws and institutions of other countries but not their political cultures.  They’ve assumed that people will forgo near-term security and stability for the chance to vote.  They’ve used military intervention to promote democratic values without accounting for the problems this approach creates.  And they’ve ignored the values and interests of those they hope to persuade.
The survey also finds that allowing foreign-born people to study and live in the U.S. can help to promote democracy: support for American ideas of democracy is driven largely by immigration and direct connections to diaspora communities.  People who report having had family members or close friends who have lived in America in the past five years are significantly more likely to have positive views.
That’s one reason U.S. policy­makers would be more successful if they found the modesty to promote democracy around the world without the explicit American packaging and with the humility to acknowledge that the U.S. has often failed to live up to democracy’s highest ideals.  Democracy’s appeal comes in the power it gives individuals to set their own course.  America should accept that each country will need to find its own path to adopt democracy.
—    Ian Bremmer
Editorial:  “Selling Democracy“
Appearing in:  Time Magazine;  dtd:  27 May 2019
The article appears online at:  https://time.com/5590236/what-defines-worldwide-democracy/
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A Bad Bet

International relations are not a poker game.  In a world of “every nation for itself”  —  a G-zero world  —  it’s harder than ever to accomplish anything ambitions without allies.  Trump’s indiscriminate use of “I dare you to fight” tactics with friends and foes alike is eroding not only traditional alliances but also the institutions those alliances have sustained over many decades.  Over the long term, that’s bad for the U.S. and bad for the world.
—  Ian Bremmer
From and opinion article titled:  “The Limits of Being the World’s Bully“
Appearing in Time Magazine, 18 June 2018
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Maybe It Should Be Clearer

The Constitution is clear:  the President sets foreign policy.  Congress provides “advice and consent” for the ratification of treaties.  Lawmakers should not undermine the President’s proper authority, but neither should the President cede that authority for temporary political advantage.   The President and Congress score points off each other every day, but if their gamesmanship undermines Washington’s credibility, the national interest will suffer.
—    Ian Bremmer
From his editorial:  “Credit Crunch Congress and Obama weaken the U.S. by playing politics abroad“
The editorial appeared in:  Time Magazine;  dtd:  23 March 2015
[Actually, the Constitution says in Article 2, Section 2:
“He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur;  …”
The “He” mentioned is the President and the approving body is the Senate and not Congress.  The House of Representatives has no role in the treaty process.    —    kmab]
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