[A “Black Swan” is:] A random event satisfying the following three properties: large impact, incomputable probabilities, and surprise effect. First, it carries upon its occurrence a disproportionately large impact. Second, its incidence has a small but incomputable probability based on information available prior to its incidence. Third, a vicious property of a Black Swan is its surprise effect: at a given time of observation there is no convincing element pointing to an increased likelihood of the event. | |
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb | |
Quoted from his book: “Fooled By Randomness“ | |
. | |
Seen Any Black Swans Lately?
July 12, 2011 by kmabarrett
Leave a Reply