Archive for July 12th, 2011

[A “Black Swan” is:]  A random event satisfying the following three properties:  large impact, incomputable probabilities, and surprise effect.  First, it carries upon its occurrence a disproportionately large impact.  Second, its incidence has a small but incomputable probability based on information available prior to its incidence.  Third, a vicious property of a Black Swan is its surprise effect:  at a given time of observation there is no convincing element pointing to an increased likelihood of the event.
    —    Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Quoted from his book:  “Fooled By Randomness

Read Full Post »

%d bloggers like this: